Following Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, Navy remains in the mix when it comes to the American Conference Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. With three teams still alive in The American, Navy’s playoff chances hinge on them making and winning the conference championship game.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Navy’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Navy’s American Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Navy a 36.6%Â chance of playing in the American Championship Game.
Their remaining conference game is at Memphis. The PFSN College FPM has them winning that game in 50.9% of simulations. Navy also plays Army in Week 16, which is a game between two teams in The American, but is not a conference game in terms of the standings.
The nightmare scenario for Navy would be to be tied at 7-1 with Tulane and North Texas. Tulane is currently the only ranked team by the CFP Selection Committee, and thus would win the multi-team tiebreaker. North Texas would then have the advantage over Navy due to their head-to-head win, having beaten them 31-17 a few weeks ago.
If there is to be a multi-team tie at 7-1, Navy needed East Carolina to be in there to cloud things a little and negate that head-to-head for North Texas. Then it would have come down to whether the CFP Selection Committee ranks any of the teams in the tiebreaker, or whoever has the best combined ranking from the four analytics companies. Unfortunately, East Carolina lost in Week 13, and it is unlikely to be involved in any tiebreaker.
Navy’s only real chance of hosting The American Championship Game would be for Tulane and North Texas to both lose a game each, or Navy gets the better of them in the CFP or analytic rankings.
What are Navy’s Playoff Chances?
For teams in Group of Five conferences, such as The American, their path to the College Football Playoff is more complicated than for teams in Power 4 conferences. While technically, teams from the Group of Five conferences could make it with an “at-large” bid, doing so is extremely tough. However, there is one guaranteed spot for the highest-ranked Group of Five conference winner.
The PFSN College FPM gives Navy a 5.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make The American Championship Game in 36.6% of simulations, and win the conference in 13.7% of simulations.
Navy is currently not ranked in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. The only Group of Five team to be ranked is Tulane, which Navy may well have to beat in the American Championship Game. If they do that, they may well earn themselves a spot in the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
The unknown in all of this is how the CFP Selection Committee views James Madison, who has an 11-1 record and is set to contest the Sun Belt Championship Game. Based on what we have seen so far in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, The American is viewed as the superior conference to the Sun Belt. Navy is 8-2, but one of those losses is to a top-10-ranked team, Notre Dame.
If Navy is in the College Football Playoff, the most likely outcome would be as the 12th seed. That would mean traveling to play the No. 5 seed in the first round.
Our simulations also give Navy a 0.2% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.05% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.02% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
