After a win in Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, Navy remains in the mix when it comes to the American Conference Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. With three teams still alive in The American, Navy’s playoff chances hinge on them making and winning the conference championship game.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Navy’s chances of making it to the American Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Navy’s American Championship Game Chances
Navy was facing the worst scenario out of all the American Championship teams entering Week 14, and while they did their bit, wins for North Texas and Tulane ensured that the Midshipmen missed out on the title game. The full story of the how behind the story can be found below.
Let’s take a look at the teams who are still in the mix, and their respective American Conference Championship Game chances:
- North Texas (7-1, 11-1): 100%
- Tulane (7-1, 10-2): 100%
- Navy (7-1, 9-2): 0%
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Navy a 13.7%Â chance of playing in the American Championship Game. There is nothing left for them to control, and they are now relying on the results of other teams to determine whether they make the American Championship Game.
For Navy to make the American Conference Championship, they need to hope that Tulane loses. If all three teams are at 7-1, then Navy will miss out. Tulane would win the three-way tiebreaker based on being the highest-ranked team in the conference in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. Then North Texas would win the head-to-head over Navy based on their head-to-head result this year.
MORE: Strength of Schedule for All 136 FBS College Football Teams
Navy cannot host the American Championship Game. If they make it, they will travel to DATCU Stadium to face North Texas.
Navy also plays Army in Week 16, which is a game between two teams in The American, but it is not a conference game in terms of the standings, and is played after the conference championship game is played.
What are Navy’s Playoff Chances?
For teams in Group of Five conferences, such as The American, their path to the College Football Playoff is more complicated than for teams in Power 4 conferences. While technically, teams from the Group of Five conferences could make it with an “at-large” bid, doing so is extremely tough.
However, there is one guaranteed spot for the highest-ranked Group of Five conference winner due to the rule that gives the five highest-ranked conference champions an auto bid to the 12-team postseason tournament.
The PFSN College FPM gives Navy a 3.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make the American Championship Game in 13.7% of simulations, and win the conference in 6.2% of simulations.
Navy is currently not ranked in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. The only Group of Five team to be ranked is Tulane, which Navy may well have to beat in the American Championship Game. If they do that, they may earn themselves a spot in the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
The unknown in all of this is how the CFP Selection Committee views James Madison, who has an 11-1 record and is set to contest the Sun Belt Championship Game. Based on what we have seen so far in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, the American is viewed as the superior conference to the Sun Belt. Navy is 9-2, but one of those losses is to a top-10-ranked team, Notre Dame.
If Navy is in the College Football Playoff, the most likely outcome would be as the 12th seed. That would mean traveling to play the No. 5 seed in the first round.
Our simulations also give Navy a 0.11% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.03% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.01% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
