Following Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Miami Hurricanes are projected to be on the fringe of the CFB Playoff field. Where do they stand in the 12-team bracket, and can they compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Miami’s chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are Miami’s CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives Miami a 44.2% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Miami is currently ranked 12th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 10-2 overall and 6-2 in conference play.
The Hurricanes kicked off the 2025 season with a strong win over Notre Dame, but losses to Louisville and SMU reduced their standing, and ultimately knocked them out of the ACC Championship game by virtue of the conference tiebreakers.
Now, Miami’s only hope at making the CFB Playoffs is by securing one of the final At-Large bids. And ranked at 12th overall, Mario Cristobal’s squad is farther outside “safe” territory than they’d prefer.
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The committee’s decision to rank Notre Dame two spots above Miami in the latest CFB Playoff rankings update suggests that, in spite of Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame, the committee still favors Notre Dame’s resume over Miami’s. Nevertheless, Miami still has a chance if things fall their way.
Some aspects of Miami’s path to the CFB Playoffs, however, are non-negotiable. Miami needed BYU to lose to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship to open up one spot. The Red Raiders achieved that milestone on behalf of Miami in Arlington. An Alabama loss to Georgia would also loosen the Crimson Tide’s footing and open a path for Miami to break in.
Even in that scenario, however, the CFB Playoff committee would have to deem that a three-loss Alabama has a weaker record than a 10-2 Miami, despite Alabama’s regular-season head-to-head wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. An Alabama title loss could at least get the ball rolling.
Ultimately, however, Miami is on the outside looking in, and the odds that they’d both get all of the right dominos to fall their way and get the CFB Playoff committee to give them previously unseen grace is unlikely.
Our simulations give Miami a 5.0% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 2% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.9% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
