After a win in Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, Miami remains in the mix when it comes to the ACC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. With six teams still alive in the ACC, Miami’s playoff chances are relatively slim, and their scenarios require help from elsewhere.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Miami’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Miami’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Miami a 0.4%Â chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Pittsburgh. The PFSN College FPM has them winning out in 54.6% of simulations.
Miami has no choice but to win in Pittsburgh if it wants any chance of making the ACC Championship Game. At three losses, they would be beyond where Georgia Tech and Virginia can fall to, and would be eliminated.
If they win next week, Miami needs two of SMU, Virginia, and Georgia Tech to lose at least one game each. After Georgia Tech lost to Pittsburgh, Miami needs either SMU to lose its final game or Virginia Tech to beat Virginia.
There are scenarios in which Duke can win next week and Miami still makes the ACC Championship Game. However, the majority of those scenarios involve Miami facing Duke in the ACC Championship Game, which has just a 0.3% chance of happening.
If Duke and Miami both win, Miami needs Stanford to beat Cal, Pittsburgh to beat Georgia Tech, SMU to beat Cal, and Virginia Tech to beat Virginia to ensure Duke cannot claim the ACC Championship Game spot.
What are Miami’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. The PFSN College FPM gives Miami a 0.21% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make the ACC Championship Game in 0.42% of simulations, and win the conference in 0.21% of simulations. That leaves them with a <0.01% chance of earning an “At-Large” selection.
Miami is currently ranked 13th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. That makes it challenging for them to earn an “At-Large” bid because the only way to climb into the top 10, where they would need to be, would be by winning out, and doing so would mean they win the ACC Championship Game.
Sitting at 9-2 overall in the relatively weak ACC makes it hard for Miami to win enough games to be an At-Large bid, but then also lose the ACC Championship Game in the process.
If Miami makes it into the playoff, their range of potential seeds spreads from No. 4 to No. 11, depending on how other results fall. We also do not know how the committee may view a conference championship in relation to other factors, which could also play a significant role in how they are seeded.
Our simulations also give Miami a 0.05% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.02% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.01% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
