It’s November, which means the most wonderful element of the college football season is upon us. No, not the College Football Playoff rankings. MACtion is back! The Mid-American Conference is the original purveyor of midweek madness, and this season promises to be no exception as the 13 teams battle for a place in Detroit for the 2025 MAC Championship Game.
Who’s in? Who’s out? What does the path to the MAC Championship Game play out as the remaining games unfold?
MAC Championship Game Probabilities
MACtion kicks off Tuesday with two games, including a high-profile battle at the top, followed by two games on Wednesday and a standalone clash on Saturday afternoon. Those matchups are set to refine the MAC Championship Game probabilities.
As you can see below, nearly every team in the conference has a mathematical chance to reach the title game entering Week 11. The three teams mathematically eliminated from contention are the Bowling Green Falcons, Eastern Michigan Eagles, and conference newcomer, the UMass Minutemen.
All data comes from the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter.
- Miami (OH): 68.0%
- Western Michigan: 41.5%
- Ohio: 37.7%
- Buffalo: 35.7%
- Toledo: 6.7%
- Central Michigan: 6.1%
- Ball State: 2.5%
- Kent State: 1.3%
- Northern Illinois: 0.5%
- Akron: 0.1%
MAC Championship Game Winning Probability
- Miami (OH): 37.1%
- Western Michigan: 20.1%
- Ohio: 19.5%
- Buffalo: 15.9%
- Toledo: 3.1%
- Central Michigan: 2.7%
- Ball State: 0.9%
- Kent State: 0.4%
- Northern Illinois: 0.2%
- Akron: 0.03%
While multiple teams are setting the pace at the top of the MAC standings heading into Week 11, all the teams listed above still have a mathematical chance of getting to — and therefore winning — the MAC Championship Game. As we’ll get into shortly, those chances are going to deteriorate rapidly, but if you don’t have belief entering the game, what else do you have?!
Latest MAC Standings
1) Miami (OH) RedHawks 5-3 (4-0)
2) Buffalo Bulls 5-4 (4-1)
3) Western Michigan Broncos 5-4 (4-1)
4) Ohio Bobcats 5-3 (3-1)
5) Central Michigan Chippewas 5-4 (3-2)
6) Toledo Rockets 4-4 (2-2)
7) Ball State Cardinals 3-5 (2-2)
8) Kent State Golden Flashes 3-5 (2-2)
9) Akron Zips 3-6 (2-3)
10) Northern Illinois Huskies 2-6 (1-3)
11) Bowling Green Falcons 3-6 (1-4)
12) Eastern Michigan Eagles 2-7 (1-4)
13) UMass Minutemen 0-8 (0-4)
Miami (OH)’s MAC Championship Road Map
The RedHawks enter Week 11 of the 2025 college football season in an enviable position. If they win their remaining games, they’ll be in the MAC Championship Game.
Miami (OH) is the only team yet to drop a game in the conference, giving them an added element of cushion. Their Week 11 matchup against Ohio isn’t necessarily a must-win; they could still reach Detroit with a loss, especially since they face Buffalo in two weeks.
- at Ohio: 48.2%
- vs. Toledo: 54.3%
- at Buffalo: 54.3%
- vs. Ball State: 77.1%
Western Michigan’s MAC Championship Road Map
Western Michigan’s loss to Miami (OH) is a significant factor in the race to the MAC Championship Game, as they’ll be eliminated from contention if it comes to a tiebreaker with the RedHawks. However, the Broncos’ path to Detroit is relatively straightforward, as long as they beat Ohio in Week 12. A loss in that game could be a death knell depending on other results.
- vs. Ohio: 51.2%
- at Northern Illinois: 62.6%
- at Eastern Michigan: 61.1%
Ohio’s MAC Championship Road Map
Ohio has played one fewer conference game than two of the teams currently ahead of them in the MAC standings, but has to play both of those (Western Michigan and Buffalo) on the road. A loss to Miami (OH) tonight makes things challenging for the Bobcats, with a loss to Ball State really giving them little room for error in their pathway to the MAC Championship Game.
- vs. Miami (OH): 51.8%
- at Western Michigan: 48.8%
- vs. UMass: 83.5%
- at Buffalo: 53.4%
Buffalo’s MAC Championship Road Map
While Buffalo enters Week 11 with a 4-1 conference record, their path to the MAC Championship Game is trickier than most of the top teams. A loss to Akron gives them little room for error as they enter a home stretch that features three games where they’re underdogs.
A loss at Central Michigan next week would leave the teams with equal records, and the Bulls would be behind the Chippewas in a head-to-head tiebreaker. Pete Lembo’s team has narrowly scraped three of its four MAC wins, giving little confidence in upsetting either Miami (OH) or Ohio in the final two outings.
- at Central Michigan: 46.2%
- vs. Miami (OH): 45.7%
- vs. Ohio: 46.6%
Toledo’s MAC Championship Road Map
Toledo is already two games back from Miami (OH) heading into Week 11, and they must beat Northern Illinois on Wednesday night to realistically stay in the race before they welcome the RedHawks to the Glass Bowl. Jason Candle’s team also lost to Western Michigan in their MAC opener, so they’re at a head-to-head disadvantage against the Broncos.
- vs. Northern Illinois: 71.6%
- at Miami (OH): 45.7%
- vs. Ball State: 75.1%
- at Central Michigan: 50.6%
Central Michigan’s MAC Championship Road Map
Having played one more game than Miami (OH) and Ohio heading into Week 11, Central Michigan is technically just one win back in the race to the MAC Championship Game. They’re on a bye this week and will be hoping that the Bobcats lose to the RedHawks on Tuesday night.
A head-to-head loss against Western Michigan impacts their route to Detroit, but as long as Matt Drinkall’s side takes care of their own business in the final three — two of which they’re favored in — there is a chance for the Chips to reach Detroit, albeit a slim one.
- vs. Buffalo: 53.8%
- at Kent State: 64.6%
- vs. Toledo: 49.4%
Ball State’s MAC Championship Road Map
Ball State’s win over Ohio is hugely significant to their chances of reaching the MAC Championship Game. It gives them a tiebreaker advantage if results ahead of them go their way down the stretch of the season. They need to beat Kent State and Eastern Michigan before tackling Toledo and Miami (OH) to end the year, while hoping several teams trip each other up.
- vs. Kent State: 55.6%
- vs. Eastern Michigan: 49.2%
- at Toledo: 24.9%
- at Miami (OH): 22.9%
Kent State’s MAC Championship Road Map
That it’s Week 11 and we’re still discussing Kent State having a mathematical chance to reach the MAC Championship Game is a miracle in itself, and a testament to the job done by Mark Carney.
They’re two games back from Miami (OH) and just one from the chasing pack, but two road games to open November isn’t ideal for the Golden Flashes. Win those, and the matchup with Central Michigan becomes extremely interesting, especially if other results fall their way.
- at Ball State: 44.4%
- at Akron: 45.7%
- vs. Central Michigan: 35.4%
- at Northern Illinois: 36.9%
Northern Illinois’ MAC Championship Road Map
The game with Toledo on Wednesday night is a critical one for Thomas Hammond’s team. If they lose to the Rockets, they’ll be out of contention for the MAC Championship Game. They already lost to Miami (OH) and Ohio, so the head-to-head tiebreakers are not in their favor, and they’re already three games back from the RedHawks and two from the Bobcats.
- at Toledo: 28.4%
- at UMass: 67.6%
- vs. Western Michigan: 37.4%
- vs. Kent State: 63.1%
Akron’s MAC Championship Road Map
PFSN’s FPM favors the Zips in their next two games, but they’re still a long shot to reach the MAC Championship Game. Wins over Central Michigan and Buffalo are significant if they do run the table here, but a loss to Miami (OH) means they’d ideally have the RedHawks run the table and hope for other results to go their way down the stretch.
An Ohio win in Week 11 is the result they really don’t want.
- vs. UMass: 64.1%
- vs. Kent State: 54.3%
- at Bowling Green: 34.9%