Entering Week 14, the MAC Championship Game scenarios still had five potential teams that could fill the two available spots in Detroit. We saw one team clinch on Tuesday night, but now we will have to wait until Saturday to see how the complete picture plays out.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Update: Miami (OH) will face Western Michigan in the MAC Championship Game
A former version of this article stated that Ohio had been eliminated. That was based on the previously published MAC tiebreakers. However, it now appears that the MAC have changed their tiebreakers, meaning Ohio can still make it in one scenario.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the MAC Championship Game?
Entering the final week, five teams can still make it. Let’s take a look at the teams who are still in the mix, and their respective MAC Conference Game chances:
- Western Michigan (7-1, 8-4): 100%
- Miami (OH) (5-2, 6-5): 68.0%
- Toledo (5-2, 7-4): 16.3%
- Central Michigan (5-2, 7-4): 15.7%
- Ohio (6-2, 7-4): <0.01%
Western Michigan’s MAC Championship Game Chances
Western Michigan has clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game. Their win over Eastern Michigan on Tuesday meant they finished with a 7-1 record, which cannot be matched by anyone else in the conference.
Western Michigan could face any of Toledo, Miami (OH), Central Michigan, or Ohio in the MAC Championship Game, depending on the outcome of various Week 14 results. Across our 50,000 simulations, Western Michigan finishes as champions of the MAC in 2025 in 55.3% of scenarios.
Among their possible opponents, the only teams rated higher in PFSN College Football Power Rankings are Toledo. Therefore, Western Michigan will be favored in every matchup except against Toledo. Still, the two teams rank so similarly that our matchup analysis has the game as a near 50-50 matchup, with a slight lean toward Toledo.
Miami (OH)’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Miami (OH) a 68.0% chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Ball State. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 68.0% chance of winning that game.
Miami (OH) is guaranteed to make the MAC Conference Championship Game if it wins its last game. With Ohio beating Buffalo, it means that Miami (OH) is in the MAC Championship Game if they defeat Ball State.
If Miami (OH) and Toledo both win, Ohio’s win helps the RedHawks. The confusing element is that Miami (OH) lost to both Toledo and Ohio, but the MAC tiebreakers do not eliminate teams that were swept by both of the other tiebreaker teams. The tiebreakers only advance a team that swept the others.
Therefore, Ohio’s win negates the head-to-head element with Toledo. Then Miami (OH) would win the three-way tiebreaker with a 3-0 record against common opponents compared to 2-1 for Toledo and 1-2 for Ohio (Ball State, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois).
If Central Michigan beats Toledo, Miami (OH) also has all the tiebreakers in its advantage. In a three-way tie with Central Michigan and Ohio, Miami (OH) has the best record against common opponents (3-0).
There are no scenarios where Miami (OH) can lose in Week 14 and still make the MAC Championship Game. One of Toledo or Central Michigan is guaranteed to get to 6-2, so Miami (OH) would miss out at 5-3 if they lose.
Toledo’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Toledo a 16.3% chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is at Central Michigan. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 49.5% chance of winning that game.
Toledo is not guaranteed to make the MAC Championship Game if it wins in Week 14. Toledo needs Miami (OH) to lose for them to make the MAC Championship Game. In a two-way tiebreaker, they have a better common opponent tiebreaker over Ohio.
A three-way tiebreaker is a no-go because Miami (OH) would be 3-0 against common opponents with both Toledo and Ohio.
Here is the scenario that Toledo needs to play out in Week 14 to make the MAC Championship Game:
1) Toledo wins, and Ball State wins. Toledo has the tiebreaker, having beaten Ball State, whom Ohio lost to.
Toledo cannot make the MAC Championship Game if it loses in Week 14.
Central Michigan’s MAC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Central Michigan a 15.7% chance of playing in the MAC Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is vs. Toledo. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 50.5% chance of winning that game.
Central Michigan cannot be assured of making the MAC Championship Game. They need to win and have Ball State beat Miami (OH). It would then come down to the SportSource analytics, as it appears that the MAC has prioritized conference strength of schedule over their tiebreakers.
A three-way tiebreaker with Ohio and Miami (OH) would favor the RedHawks. Miami (OH) has better results against common opponents in both a two and a three-way tiebreaker.
There are no scenarios in which Central Michigan can lose its final game and make it to the MAC Championship Game.
Ohio’s MAC Championship Game Chances
Despite beating Buffalo, Ohio appeared to have been eliminated from the MAC Championship Game due to Northern Illinois’ loss to Kent State. Based on the former MAC tiebreakers, Ohio could not surpass Central Michigan based on conference strength of schedule.
However, that does not seem to be the way the tiebreakers are working this season. The former tiebreaker document is no longer accessible on the MAC website, and the conference posted scenarios that show an Ohio and Central Michigan tiebreaker coming down to SportSource analytics.
Once Toledo won last Saturday, it complicated Ohio’s path to the MAC Championship Game. They ideally needed the ability to get into a two-way tiebreaker with Miami (OH), and that is now gone, as Toledo or Central Michigan is assured of reaching a 6-2 record.
The problem for Ohio is that Toledo has the tiebreaker advantage over them. Toledo has the better record against a common opponent in Ball State.
MAC Tiebreakers
Two-team tiebreakers
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be used to determine who will advance to the MAC Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against all common opponents.
3) Win percentage versus common opponents based on their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken), and then moving through other common opponents based on order of finish.
4) Combined conference win percentage of each team’s conference opponent – This no longer appears to be being used by the MAC.
5) The highest ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ Team Rating Score following the regular season.
6) Random draw.
Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
3) Win percentage against all common opponents.
4) Win percentage versus common opponents based on their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken), and then moving through other common opponents based on order of finish.
5) Combined conference win percentage of each team’s conference opponent – This no longer appears to be being used by the MAC.
6) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ Team Rating Score following the regular season.
7) Random draw.
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in the MAC standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest the MAC Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.