Following Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the James Madison Dukes have a chance to make the CFB Playoff field. Where do they stand in the hunt to make the 12-team bracket, and can they compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine James Madison’s chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are James Madison’s CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives James Madison a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff after championship weekend. The Dukes are currently ranked 25th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings (ahead of the final reveal), sitting at 12-1, 8-0 in conference play, and the winner of the Sun Belt Championship Game.
The Dukes — led by home-grown quarterback Alonza Barnett III — went undefeated against Sun Belt opponents in 2025, with their only loss coming at the hands of a tough Louisville team early in the year. Even in that game, James Madison fought admirably, falling 28-14 to Jeff Brohm’s talented Cardinals squad.
James Madison head coach Bob Chesney has already accepted an offer to become the next head coach of the UCLA Bruins following DeShaun Foster’s dismissal, but Chesney isn’t leaving his team in the midst of a potential Playoff run. He coached in the Sun Belt Championship Game and will remain with the team throughout their playoff run.
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The five highest-ranked conference champions make the College Football Playoff as the automatic bids. The Indiana Hoosiers won the Big Ten and are likely the No. 1 seed. The Georgia Bulldogs won the SEC, while the Texas Tech Red Raiders won the Big 12 Championship in comfortable fashion against the BYU Cougars.
On Friday night, the Tulane Green Wave, the highest-ranked Group of Five team, won the American Championship Game, seemingly sealing their place in the 12-team postseason tournament. After the Duke Blue Devils won the ACC Championship Game, James Madison sits as the fifth-highest-ranked champion and should be playing in the playoff.
That comes with a caveat. We don’t know how close Duke was to James Madison entering Week 15. There is a world where the College Football Selection Committee eyes the Blue Devils win over a ranked Virginia Cavaliers team as a reason to move them into the top 25, potentially above James Madison. It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened with this committee.
If James Madison makes the CFB Playoffs, they can only make it as the 12-seed as the lowest-ranked team in the field, per the PFSN College FPM. With the 12-seed, they’d field a matchup against the fifth-seed — which would likely be Oregon, based on the previous rankings.
Our simulations give James Madison a 0.7% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.1% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.001% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
