Illinois State vs. Montana State Prediction: Can a Cinderella Story Prevent the Bobcats’ Ending 40-Year Wait?

Illinois State hopes to cap a magical season against one of the best FCS teams when it faces Montana State for a national championship.

The FCS Championship Game kicks off this evening, with the Illinois State Redbirds facing the Montana State Bobcats. For one team, it’s a chance to keep their dream season alive, seizing a rare shot at football immortality.

On the other side, the presumptive favorite is determined to achieve a goal decades in the making and cement their legacy. Tonight, one program reaches the pinnacle, while the other must wait another year to grasp greatness.

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Illinois State vs. Montana State Details

  • Date: Monday, Jan. 6, 2026
  • Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: FirstBank Stadium | Nashville, TN
  • Predicted weather at kick: 52 degrees, clear, 9 mph winds
  • How to watch: ESPN

Illinois State vs. Montana State Prediction

The Redbirds began their season with a tough loss to Oklahoma, gaining just 151 yards against a future College Football Playoff team. Throughout the rest of the season, they experienced close wins and painful losses, including dropping their last regular-season game to in-state rival Southern Illinois, who kept Illinois State scoreless for the final 55:17 of a 37-7 defeat.

Despite setbacks, the Redbirds qualified for the FCS playoffs, thanks to the strength of the Missouri Valley Conference.

MORE: Brendan Sorsby Solves Texas Tech’s Only Problem After CFP Humiliation

The turning point in the Redbirds’ postseason happened when they faced perennial power and defending champion North Dakota State. NDSU held the lead for 59 minutes until ISU quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse found senior wideout Daniel Sobkowicz with a minute left.

Instead of kicking the game-tying extra point, Illinois State went for two, winning 29-28, shocking the FCS world. After that, two decisive wins against UC Davis and Villanova sent the team to the national championship game.

Montana State, competing in the tough Big Sky Conference, has faced its rival, the University of Montana, regularly. The Grizzlies often prevailed for years, but head coach Brent Vigen changed their fortunes, leading the Bobcats to win four of the last six ‘Brawl of the Wild’ matchups, shaping a new era for the program.

During his time in Bozeman, Vigen has won 80% of his games and captured three conference titles. His coaching career has seen notable turns, including his tenure as a quarterback coach at the FBS level, where he contributed to developing future NFL talent, such as Josh Allen, in Laramie.

MORE: Curt Cignetti’s Quarterback Formula Landed Indiana Another Star

Tonight’s game centers around dominance versus momentum.

The Bobcats boast the eighth-best scoring offense (38.1 points per game) and eighth-best defense (18 points allowed per game). On the other hand, the Redbirds will ride the arm of Rittenhouse. With eight touchdowns and seven interceptions in the playoffs, he remains the definition of streaky.

MSU counters with the steady hand of quarterback Justin Lamson, who threw for 24 touchdowns to three interceptions. The Bobcats prefer a controlled pace, while ISU craves the big play.

The Bobcats seek their first national title since 1984 and aim to reinforce their presence in college football, while the Redbirds chase their first national championship in a 139-year history defined by determination.

Both teams arrive with redemption and legacy on the line, setting the stage for an anticipated clash in Nashville.

Prediction: Illinois State 25, Montana State 37

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