Houston Playoff Chances: Latest Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios Following Week 13

Entering Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, the Houston Cougars’ Big 12 Championship chances were seriously wounded — but still alive, per the mathematics. How did their loss to the TCU Horned Frogs impact their season outlook?

With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Houston’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.

Houston’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances

Entering Week 13, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Houston a 1.7% chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. However, that scenario relied on the Cougars winning out and multiple other scenarios going their way. Willie Fritz’s team needed to take care of business at home against TCU to keep the dream alive for the season finale.

However, the Cougars came up short against the Frogs on Saturday. After falling behind by 14 early on, Houston slowly clawed back into contention. Still, a fourth-quarter field goal for the visitors, combined with a missed attempt late in the game, consigned the home team to a third Big 12 conference defeat, leaving them incapable of catching BYU, Texas Tech, or surpassing the Utah Utes in the race for the Big 12 title.

What are Houston’s Playoff Chances?

There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team.

Heading into Week 13, the PFSN College FPM gave Houston a 4.6% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They made the Big 12 Championship Game in 1.7% of simulations, and won the conference in 0.5% of simulations, leaving them with a 4.1% chance of earning an “At-Large” selection.

However, all those numbers were reset to zero with the loss to TCU on Saturday. The Cougars can no longer mathematically win the Big 12, removing the auto-bid option to reach the College Football Playoff. Their resume doesn’t pass the sniff test as an “At-Large” bid, so Houston will not reach the College Football Playoff in the 2025 college football season.