Part of a gaggle of teams that entered Week 12 in SEC Championship Game contention, the Georgia Bulldogs firmly took their own destiny into their hands with a convincing and comfortable win over the Texas Longhorns. How did the dominant win shape Kirby Smart’s team’s chance of reaching the title game?
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Georgia’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Georgia’s SEC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Georgia a 53.1% chance of playing in the SEC Championship Game with their conference slate now played out.
Out of 1,024 potential scenarios remaining in the SEC, Georgia can make the SEC Championship Game in 75.0%. It’s a remarkable turnaround considering that a loss would have eliminated them from playing in the conference title game at all, jeopardising the chances of making the College Football Playoff.
Instead, it was Smart’s team ending the dreams of multiple programs — including the Longhorns.
What are Georgia’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for Georgia: win the SEC Championship Game or be an at-large team. PFSN College FPM currently gives Georgia an 98.5% chance of competing in the College Football Playoff.
Our simulations give Georgia a 53.1% chance of playing the SEC Championship Game and a 24.4% chance of winning the SEC Championship Game. That leaves them with a 74.2% chance of making the CFP as an at-large team.
In the CFP, four teams receive a bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the first round entirely. Currently, our College FPM has Georgia as a top-four seed in 25.8% of simulations.
That breaks down in the following way:
- #1 Seed: 1.2%
- #2 Seed: 23.1%
- #3 Seed: 0.06%
- #4 Seed: 1.4%
Our simulations also give Georgia a 34.1% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 16.4% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 7.9% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
