The NFL Draft cycle is a cruel machine that builds gods in November and tears them down by April. For months, the buzz surrounding certain signal-callers feels bulletproof until the league’s power brokers actually sit down with the 2025 tape.
When the coach’s kid polish and the prototypical frame meet the cold reality of a stagnant offense, the draft floor tends to fall out.
NFL Draft Stock of Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier Tumbles
We are officially at that point in the 2026 cycle where the pre-draft helium has leaked out of the room. Two names once penciled into the first round are now fighting to stay in the Day 2 conversation as the scouting community gets loud about what they’ve seen. The transition from ‘franchise savior’ to ‘high-level backup’ is a jagged pill, but for these two prospects, it’s the current reality.
The scouting report on Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier has turned decidedly sour as the 2026 NFL Draft approaches. Despite Allar’s elite physical traits and Nussmeier’s football IQ, the league isn’t buying the hype.
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Chase Daniel recently pulled back the curtain on “The Breakdown Podcast,” revealing a massive Tier 2 gap between the top prospects, Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, and the rest of the field. He suggests that neither Allar nor Nussmeier has done enough on tape to warrant a premium selection.
Daniel’s assessment was particularly blunt regarding the regression of their play compared to previous seasons. “I think Mendoza’s one, I think, Simpson is two,” Daniel said. “And then, to me, there’s a huge drop-off, and that person, to me, would be either Garrett Nussmeier or Drew Allar.”
Nussmeier entered the 2025 season with massive expectations at LSU, but the “face of the program” narrative crumbled under the weight of a 7-6 record. His 76.1 PFSN CFB Offensive Impact score reflected a season marred by injuries and inconsistent decision-making.
While he reclaimed some momentum with an MVP performance at the Senior Bowl and a stable Combine showing, the LSU product is no longer viewed as a first-round lock. Instead, he’s categorized as a “low-risk swing” who might slip into the late Day 2 or early Day 3 range.
Allar’s fall is arguably more frustrating for talent evaluators. Two years ago, the Penn State quarterback looked like the blueprint for a modern NFL starter, leading the Nittany Lions to a College Football Playoff semifinal appearance.
However, his 2025 campaign was cut short by a premature ankle injury after he managed 2,341 yards and 16 touchdowns. The PFSN CFB QB Impact Metric buried him at No. 71 overall with a 78.7 grade, confirming the scouts’ fears that his physical tools haven’t translated into elite processing.
“Drew Allar, I mean, to me, like I really liked him two years ago, but he’s probably the most frustrating prospect I’ve watched,” Daniel said. “Because he has all the traits in the world. You look at them just physically and you would have said in 2024, I mean, this is what I want my guy to be made of. And then you watch the film, you’re like, ‘What are you doing?'”
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This lack of consistency has made Allar a polarizing figure in war rooms. While he remains QB3 on PFSN’s consensus big board, he is widely expected to fall outside the top 60 picks.
If a team like the Los Angeles Rams, who are reportedly eyeing offensive tackle Spencer Fano at No. 13, waits until the late second round to gamble on a quarterback, Allar becomes a developmental project rather than a Day 1 starter. The arm talent is there, but the “what are you doing” plays on tape have officially capped his ceiling.
