It’s late August. The smell of BBQ and optimism is in the air. College football is back, baby. Over the next 948 games and five months, the warming summer sun will give way to the cold, harsh reality of failure for 126 programs. But for 12 teams, our first College Football Playoff predictions of the new season provide a pathway to the postseason and the ultimate glory.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Georgia
- No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Ole Miss
- No. 11 USC vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- No. 10 Texas vs. No. 7 Oregon
Any College Football Playoff predictions worth their salt must start with the Group of Six battle to reach the postseason promised land. In a change to the rules from last season, you no longer have to win your conference to represent the non-Power Four conferences in the playoff. Simply, the highest-ranked Group of Six program will make the 12-team tournament.
In our preseason projection, that honor belongs to the Boise State Broncos. The argument about whether the new Pac-12 constitutes a “power conference” will rage on for a long time, but there’s no denying that the perennial Group of Six powerhouse is well set up to lead all teams from that level this fall, notably with a ludicrous double-headed monster in the offensive backfield.
In our first College Football Playoff predictions, the 12th-ranked Broncos are pitted against the Georgia Bulldogs, who currently have a 22.8% chance to win the SEC, according to PFN’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM). Kirby Smart’s roster is well-rounded, deep at key positions, and Gunner Stockton might be the most underrated quarterback in the national conversation.
As has become customary, the SEC is heavily represented in our College Football Playoff predictions, with four teams reaching the final 12, and setting up some cannibalism in the race to the National Championship Game. The Ole Miss Rebels notably avoid the Alabama Crimson Tide in the regular season, creating an electric on-campus opportunity in the postseason.
While many national analysts have written off the Rebels this offseason due to the departure of Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss has a 64.3% chance of returning to the playoff under, arguably, a better head coach in Pete Golding, and the returning duo of Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy.
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The playoff is a minimum expectation every year for Alabama, especially with Kalen DeBoer’s contract extension. The powers that be invested heavily in what they think the Crimson Tide can become under the former Washington Huskies head coach, and we’re going to get a glimpse of that future with exciting but inexperienced passer Keelon Russell earning the starting job.
The Texas Longhorns are the final SEC team in our College Football Playoff predictions. Steve Sarkisian needs this. Arch Manning needs this. The program invested heavily in the transfer portal this offseason, and missing out on the postseason tournament would constitute a gargantuan failure for the Texas head coach and his famous-named quarterback.
Reaching the playoff is one thing. Meeting a juggernaut in the first round in the shape of the Oregon Ducks is another. Our FPM gives Dan Lanning’s team the second-best chance to win the national championship (12.1%), but road games at Ohio State and USC could dictate the route they take there. From Dante Moore to a stacked defensive front, the Ducks probably have the best roster in college football this fall.
The USC Trojans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish couldn’t get their collective heads banged together hard enough for their long-standing rivalry to be a fixture on the 2026 regular season schedule, so what better than to revive it in our College Football Playoff predictions?
The Trojans have a ghastly schedule to overcome this fall, but in Jayden Maiava, they have a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback with the potential to end their absence from the postseason tournament. Notre Dame could drop their game to Miami and still be as high as the sixth seed, with Marcus Freeman’s roster talent enough to steamroll the rest of the schedule.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 7 Oregon
- Peach Bowl: No. 3 Miami (FL) vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
- Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 GeorgiaÂ
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Ole MissÂ
If you think the Indiana Hoosiers were a 2025 flash-in-the-pan, you’d better think again. Curt Cignetti builds long-lasting winners, and the program has a nice mixture of returning talent and transfer portal acquisitions to ensure this roster is just as strong as ever. Josh Hoover was a turnover machine at TCU, but he’s a talented quarterback playing in a dream system.
The PFN FPM gives the Hoosiers a 15.5% chance of being the second seed as a probable Big Ten runner-up. They avoid the Ducks in the regular season, but our College Football Playoff predictions pit the two teams together in the Fiesta Bowl. Man-for-man, Oregon has the better roster, but can Lanning outcoach Cignetti?
There are no bad games in this quarterfinal projection, and the Miami Hurricanes and Notre Dame meeting in the Peach Bowl gives us a repeat of what is set to be a regular-season highlight. The ‘Canes got better at quarterback this offseason, while returning the most electric pass catcher in the country in Malachi Toney.
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The biggest question mark is an inexperienced offensive line that will start a true freshman at left tackle. While our College Football Playoff predictions suggest Mario Cristobal’s team wins the regular-season matchup, Notre Dame’s 11.1% shot to take home the ultimate prize (Miami is 9.4% to win it all) suggests that luck favors the Irish in this postseason punchup.
Are the Texas Tech Red Raiders the new villain of college football? Offseason headlines and an unmatched approach to transfer portal spending make Joey McGuire’s team an easy target for social media fodder, but they’ve built a roster set to compete for a playoff spot once more. Did they get better at quarterback, however? That will define the ceiling for this team.
Having spent the end of the offseason embroiled in controversy at NFL players returning to play college ball, it’s somewhat ironic that the closest thing the “amateur” level of the sport has to an NFL factory enters the year as the No. 1 team in the country. The Ohio State Buckeyes have become akin to a professional organization under Ryan Day and are set to dominate in 2026.
Despite losing significant talent to the NFL, the Buckeyes bring back the best player in college football (Jeremiah Smith), a Heisman Trophy finalist at quarterback (Julian Sayin), and have players ready to step up at every spot across both offense and defense. Ohio State has a 15.0% chance to win the whole thing this fall, significantly higher than any other team in the country.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 OregonÂ
- Sugar Bowl: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Our College Football Playoff predictions are driven by data, not emotion. The PFN FPM projects seeds based on the results of 100,000 simulations of the entire regular season. This is the path that this data takes, and it has produced a barnstorming yet realistic postseason prediction for a season that has more uncertainty than ever before and the potential to be incredible.
All this to say, my own personal feeling is that Notre Dame vs. Oregon is a potential College Football Playoff National Championship Game scenario. That’s how good these two teams are. That’s how deep these two rosters are. That’s how unbelievably talented these two head coaches are.
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Sign me up for CJ Carr trying to unpick the lock that should be the Oregon secondary while evading pressure from a dominant defensive front, helped by one of the best offensive lines in the country. Leonard Moore vs. Evan Stewart or Dakorien Moore in one-on-one battles would provide teach tape for generations to come. This should be the national title game, but will it?
Then you have Georgia vs. Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl, a matchup that has produced high-drama collisions before, with every expectation of the same if these College Football Playoff predictions come to fruition. You can never rule out a Smart-led team, and you never should. However…
College Football Playoff National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Oregon
I’m not sold on the outcome of these College Football Playoff predictions being a repeat of a regular-season matchup in the national championship game, but in reality, with the strength of the Big Ten and SEC, there is a strong chance that whoever plays for a title in late January may have already crossed paths during the regular season.
It is so hard to beat the same team twice in a season. It sounds cliché and has been proven not to be the case before. But, in a reversal of the 2024 season, where the Ducks defeated the Buckeyes in the regular season before a humbling in the Rose Bowl, I could see this Dante Moore-led Oregon team taking a regular-season loss and getting the ultimate revenge on Jan. 25.
