CFB Playoff Meter

Team	Conf Title Gm⇅	Conf Champ⇅	CFP▼	Top 4 Seed⇅	At Large⇅	Last 8⇅	Last 4⇅	Title Game⇅	Nat Title⇅
NDNotre Dame▸ Independent	—	—	88.1%	18.7%	88.1%	65.3%	37.8%	20.7%	11.1%
OREOregon▸ Big Ten	48.1%	26.9%	79.4%	38.4%	52.5%	66.1%	38.9%	22.0%	12.0%
OSUOhio State▸ Big Ten	50.0%	30.8%	79.2%	42.3%	48.5%	68.2%	42.2%	25.3%	14.8%
UGAGeorgia▸ SEC	40.0%	22.8%	74.7%	34.7%	51.9%	60.8%	34.4%	18.6%	9.6%
MIAMiami▸ ACC	82.7%	62.4%	74.2%	35.4%	11.8%	61.9%	35.1%	18.4%	9.3%
IUIndiana▸ Big Ten	48.7%	27.2%	71.1%	32.6%	44.0%	57.7%	33.2%	18.6%	10.0%
TEXTexas▸ SEC	32.0%	17.4%	67.9%	29.1%	50.5%	53.9%	29.8%	15.7%	7.9%
MISSOle Miss▸ SEC	31.9%	17.2%	63.6%	26.7%	46.4%	49.9%	26.9%	13.9%	6.9%
ALAAlabama▸ SEC	30.3%	15.4%	58.1%	21.8%	42.7%	43.3%	22.3%	11.0%	5.2%
TA&MTexas A&M▸ SEC	24.6%	12.3%	53.5%	18.8%	41.2%	39.2%	19.7%	9.5%	4.3%
TTUTexas Tech▸ Big 12	46.5%	30.0%	43.9%	21.3%	13.9%	33.8%	14.4%	5.5%	2.1%
LSULSU▸ SEC	12.7%	5.3%	31.3%	8.7%	26.0%	20.2%	8.6%	3.4%	1.3%
BYUBYU▸ Big 12	32.3%	17.8%	28.3%	10.1%	10.5%	18.7%	6.8%	2.2%	0.7%
USCUSC▸ Big Ten	11.7%	4.1%	24.6%	6.0%	20.4%	14.7%	5.7%	2.2%	0.8%
OUOklahoma▸ SEC	8.9%	3.5%	24.3%	6.0%	20.8%	14.7%	5.9%	2.3%	0.8%
UTAHUtah▸ Big 12	27.8%	14.7%	21.6%	7.1%	6.9%	13.9%	4.8%	1.5%	0.4%
MIZMissouri▸ SEC	6.9%	2.5%	18.0%	3.8%	15.5%	10.1%	3.8%	1.4%	0.5%
TENNTennessee▸ SEC	6.8%	2.3%	16.2%	3.5%	13.9%	9.0%	3.2%	1.1%	0.4%
MICHMichigan▸ Big Ten	6.2%	1.9%	13.4%	2.8%	11.5%	7.2%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
TULNTulane▸ American	45.5%	25.9%	11.8%	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
BOISBoise State▸ Pac-12	56.3%	33.9%	11.7%	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
IOWAIowa▸ Big Ten	8.9%	2.6%	11.7%	2.8%	9.1%	6.3%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
UVAVirginia▸ ACC	24.3%	8.0%	11.5%	2.0%	3.6%	5.8%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
WASHWashington▸ Big Ten	6.6%	2.1%	11.5%	2.5%	9.4%	6.0%	1.9%	0.6%	0.2%
USFSouth Florida▸ American	41.7%	22.4%	10.8%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
JMUJames Madison▸ Sun Belt	45.8%	32.6%	10.6%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
ARIZArizona▸ Big 12	13.6%	6.3%	9.8%	2.8%	3.5%	5.5%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
LOULouisville▸ ACC	18.9%	6.1%	9.6%	1.5%	3.5%	4.6%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
NAVYNavy▸ American	43.2%	22.8%	9.3%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
CLEMClemson▸ ACC	12.5%	4.7%	8.4%	1.7%	3.7%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
SMUSMU▸ ACC	17.1%	5.5%	8.1%	1.2%	2.6%	3.8%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
CINCincinnati▸ Big 12	11.8%	5.1%	7.8%	1.9%	2.7%	4.1%	1.1%	0.2%	0.1%
GTGeorgia Tech▸ ACC	12.7%	4.1%	7.5%	1.3%	3.4%	3.6%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
PSUPenn State▸ Big Ten	7.3%	1.7%	6.8%	1.6%	5.1%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%
UNLVUNLV▸ Mountain West	60.8%	37.8%	6.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
TCUTCU▸ Big 12	10.1%	4.1%	6.2%	1.4%	2.0%	3.1%	0.8%	0.2%	<0.1%
ASUArizona State▸ Big 12	10.2%	4.2%	6.0%	1.1%	1.8%	2.9%	0.7%	0.2%	<0.1%
OKSTOklahoma State▸ Big 12	11.3%	4.6%	6.0%	0.9%	1.4%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%	<0.1%
BAYBaylor▸ Big 12	10.1%	4.2%	5.8%	1.2%	1.6%	2.8%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%
ILLIllinois▸ Big Ten	5.1%	1.3%	5.7%	1.3%	4.4%	2.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.1%
HOUHouston▸ Big 12	8.5%	3.3%	4.7%	0.9%	1.4%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%	<0.1%
SDSUSan Diego State▸ Pac-12	38.0%	19.1%	4.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
NDSUNorth Dakota State▸ Mountain West	52.2%	28.7%	4.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
PITTPittsburgh▸ ACC	8.0%	2.7%	4.4%	0.8%	1.7%	2.2%	0.6%	0.2%	<0.1%
NCSUNC State▸ ACC	10.2%	2.9%	4.1%	0.5%	1.2%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%	<0.1%
MEMMemphis▸ American	20.5%	9.8%	4.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
AUBAuburn▸ SEC	1.7%	0.5%	3.9%	0.6%	3.5%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%
ORSTOregon State▸ Pac-12	35.2%	17.2%	3.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
SCSouth Carolina▸ SEC	1.8%	0.5%	3.5%	0.6%	3.0%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%	<0.1%
WSUWashington State▸ Pac-12	35.1%	17.2%	3.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
CALCalifornia▸ ACC	5.1%	1.4%	3.0%	0.5%	1.6%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%	<0.1%
UNTNorth Texas▸ American	19.8%	8.9%	2.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
MINNMinnesota▸ Big Ten	2.4%	0.5%	2.6%	0.5%	2.1%	1.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
KSUKansas State▸ Big 12	5.4%	1.8%	2.4%	0.3%	0.6%	0.9%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
UCLAUCLA▸ Big Ten	1.9%	0.4%	2.2%	0.4%	1.8%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%
VTVirginia Tech▸ ACC	2.9%	0.9%	1.8%	0.3%	0.9%	0.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%
WVUWest Virginia▸ Big 12	3.7%	1.3%	1.8%	0.3%	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
TOLToledo▸ MAC	39.9%	24.1%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
KUKansas▸ Big 12	3.6%	1.1%	1.5%	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
FLAFlorida▸ SEC	0.7%	0.2%	1.4%	0.2%	1.2%	0.5%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
ODUOld Dominion▸ Sun Belt	16.8%	10.0%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
ARMYArmy▸ American	9.4%	3.8%	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
ARKArkansas▸ SEC	0.5%	0.1%	1.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
MSUMichigan State▸ Big Ten	1.2%	0.2%	0.9%	0.2%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
WKUWestern Kentucky▸ Conference USA	46.9%	27.2%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
VANVanderbilt▸ SEC	0.6%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
UNMNew Mexico▸ Mountain West	25.8%	11.5%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
APPAppalachian State▸ Sun Belt	14.2%	8.1%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
UCFUCF▸ Big 12	2.0%	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
SYRSyracuse▸ ACC	1.9%	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
AFAAir Force▸ Mountain West	23.4%	10.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
COLOColorado▸ Big 12	1.8%	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
TXSTTexas State▸ Pac-12	15.6%	6.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
USASouth Alabama▸ Sun Belt	26.5%	11.4%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
OHIOOhio▸ MAC	27.9%	14.4%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
ECUEast Carolina▸ American	7.4%	2.6%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
MRSHMarshall▸ Sun Belt	11.3%	6.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
WMUWestern Michigan▸ MAC	25.4%	13.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
M-OHMiami (OH)▸ MAC	27.5%	14.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
FRESFresno State▸ Pac-12	14.8%	5.5%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
LIBLiberty▸ Conference USA	38.3%	19.9%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
UKKentucky▸ SEC	0.3%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
DUKEDuke▸ ACC	1.2%	0.3%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
ISUIowa State▸ Big 12	1.4%	0.4%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
UTSAUTSA▸ American	5.0%	1.8%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
MSSTMississippi State▸ SEC	0.2%	<0.1%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
WAKEWake Forest▸ ACC	1.1%	0.2%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%
JVSTJacksonville State▸ Conference USA	30.3%	15.4%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
WISWisconsin▸ Big Ten	0.7%	0.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
NEBNebraska▸ Big Ten	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
ULLouisiana▸ Sun Belt	20.5%	7.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BCBoston College▸ ACC	0.8%	0.2%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
UDDelaware▸ Conference USA	27.6%	13.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
MDMaryland▸ Big Ten	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
BUFFBuffalo▸ MAC	16.6%	7.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
SHSUSam Houston▸ Conference USA	20.6%	9.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
USMSouthern Miss▸ Sun Belt	12.9%	4.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
BGSUBowling Green▸ MAC	16.0%	7.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
RUTGRutgers▸ Big Ten	0.3%	<0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
LTLouisiana Tech▸ Sun Belt	15.0%	5.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
CMUCentral Michigan▸ MAC	13.7%	6.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
FAUFlorida Atlantic▸ American	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CCUCoastal Carolina▸ Sun Belt	5.2%	2.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
GASOGeorgia Southern▸ Sun Belt	5.2%	2.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
FSUFlorida State▸ ACC	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
SJSUSan José State▸ Mountain West	13.0%	4.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ARSTArkansas State▸ Sun Belt	12.8%	4.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
TROYTroy▸ Sun Belt	11.1%	3.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
PURPurdue▸ Big Ten	0.2%	<0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
UNCNorth Carolina▸ ACC	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
SACSacramento State▸ MAC	12.3%	5.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
RICERice▸ American	1.7%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
NUNorthwestern▸ Big Ten	0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
NEVNevada▸ Mountain West	7.4%	2.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
STANStanford▸ ACC	0.2%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
TLSATulsa▸ American	1.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
KENNKennesaw State▸ Conference USA	11.6%	4.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
WYOWyoming▸ Mountain West	5.9%	1.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CLTCharlotte▸ American	1.1%	0.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
FIUFlorida International▸ Conference USA	9.9%	3.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
EMUEastern Michigan▸ MAC	9.0%	3.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
TEMTemple▸ American	1.0%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
HAWHawai'i▸ Mountain West	4.4%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NIUNorthern Illinois▸ Mountain West	4.1%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
GASTGeorgia State▸ Sun Belt	1.4%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CSUColorado State▸ Pac-12	2.4%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MOSTMissouri State▸ Conference USA	7.0%	2.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
BALLBall State▸ MAC	3.1%	1.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
KENTKent State▸ MAC	2.7%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
AKRAkron▸ MAC	3.8%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NMSUNew Mexico State▸ Conference USA	3.4%	1.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
USUUtah State▸ Pac-12	2.7%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UTEPUTEP▸ Mountain West	2.9%	0.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MTSUMiddle Tennessee▸ Conference USA	4.3%	1.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MASSMassachusetts▸ MAC	2.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UABUAB▸ American	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
CONNUConn▸ Independent	—	—	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
ULMUL Monroe▸ Sun Belt	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Each team's remaining games are simulated 100,000 times and run through the same standings, tiebreaker and College Football Playoff selection logic as the Playoff Predictor. Records and win distributions cover the regular season only and exclude conference championship games. Average seed is measured across the simulations in which a team reached the field.