The first Tuesday in November has been a long-awaited date on the college football calendar, and the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings didn’t disappoint. While they serve as a starting point of the selection process, how would the full College Football Playoff bracket play out based on what we learned from the committee ahead of Week 11? Let’s dive in and find out.
College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions | First Round
- No. 12 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 7 BYU Cougars
- No. 9 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders
One of the most surprising elements of the initial College Football Playoff rankings reveal was the lack of any Group of Five representation. However, under the rules of the postseason tournament, the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot, so even if no non-Power Four team is ranked, someone will fill out the bracket. The Memphis Tigers were ranked in the latest AP Poll Top 25, so they slot in here.
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There were six SEC teams ranked among the top 12, but both the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners would miss out under the current regulations. Memphis kicks out the 12th-ranked Sooners, while the projected ACC champion, the Virginia Cavaliers, would slide into the 11th spot and unseat the Longhorns. Now, using the PFSN Football Playoff Meter, we can project how the bracket plays out down the stretch.
College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 10 Notre Dame
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
- Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 8 Texas Tech
As the No. 1 team in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, the Ohio State Buckeyes would take up the Big Ten’s residence in the Rose Bowl, while the No. 3-ranked Texas A&M Aggies would file into the Sugar Bowl as the projected SEC champion.
With Ole Miss and Texas Tech the favorites to win their Round 1 matchups according to the PFSN FPM, that would form two highly entertaining matchups and put a Big 12 team in the final eight.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame, which many considered an outside bet to make the College Football Playoff entering the rankings reveal, would be a narrow 50.4% favorite to take down the presumptive Big 12 champion BYU Cougars in Round 1, setting up a rematch of last season’s postseason encounter with the Indiana Hoosiers.
Finally, Georgia would be an overwhelming favorite against Memphis in Round 1, setting up a repeat of their matchup with the Alabama Crimson Tide from earlier in the season. While it’s often considered difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, the PFSN FPM makes Alabama a 53.4% favorite on neutral soil.
College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions | Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Alabama
Although the seeding has fallen a little differently as a result of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee ranking Indiana behind Ohio State, this projected set of semifinal matchups actually mirrors our latest College Football Bowl Projections. Here’s what we wrote earlier this week about the possibility of Indiana, Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Alabama forming the final four:
With Ty Simpson leading the Heisman Trophy contenders and the Alabama Crimson Tide finding their feet under DeBoer as the season has progressed, an appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinal isn’t out of the question. It was an unthinkable situation after the Week 1 loss to Florida State, but there’s a legitimate pathway to this point. However, the PFSN FPM gives them just a 34.9% chance of toppling Ohio State.
Our college football bowl projections throw together one of the most unlikely preseason scenarios. If someone had told you that Indiana and Texas A&M would meet for a place in the National Championship Game, you’d have been carted away by men in white coats. Yet, Curt Cignetti and Mike Elko have their teams playing exciting, dominant football late in the year. The Aggies would be a five-point underdog here, per PFSN’s FPM.
College Football Playoff Bracket | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Indiana
The Big Ten has a legitimate opportunity to monopolize the College Football Playoff National Championship Game as long as the conference title game between these two teams is close enough not to warrant either team being displaced from the No. 1 and No. 2 rankings. There are very few hurdles that they’d need to overcome to make this a reality.
So, who would win? The PFSN FPM gives the Buckeyes a 52.8% chance of taking down the Hoosiers on a neutral field. While Hoosiers fans would no doubt argue against that probability, it represents the closest this matchup has been viewed all season long, and with a projected two-point winning margin, it would also make for the closest title game we’ve seen in a long time.