With college football Week 3 firmly behind us, it’s time to look at who is primed for postseason eligibility, where they could play in December, and how the College Football Playoff race shapes up ahead of Week 4.
Our college football bowl projections include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 Tulane Green Wave vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 11 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Utah Utes
- No. 10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. No. 7 LSU Tigers
- No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels
The Tulane Green Wave continues stacking Power Four victories, adding another notch with wins over Northwestern and Duke that, while perhaps lacking the marquee appeal of USF’s conquests against Boise State and Florida, keep Jon Sumrall’s squad unbeaten entering their Week 4 showdown with Ole Miss. Currently sporting a 27.7% College Football Playoff probability, the Green Wave represents the Group of Five’s most compelling postseason case.
Georgia’s dramatic overtime escape against Tennessee showcased both vulnerability and championship mettle, with Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs surviving a missed field goal to preserve their playoff trajectory. The narrow victory propels them to the fifth seed in our latest bowl projections while maintaining a robust 59.3% playoff probability despite the early-season scare.
Mario Cristobal’s Miami Hurricanes navigated past the dangerous USF Bulls in Week 3, avoiding the upset trap that has ensnared multiple ranked programs this season. The Hurricanes’ perfect 3-0 record carries a 32% playoff chance, though their path likely requires perfection or a single-loss season given their underdog status in ACC championship projections.
Utah presents a contrasting narrative as the Utes enter as conference favorites, riding a balanced attack that ranks 14th nationally in scoring offense and eighth in total defense. Kyle Whittingham’s program shows no signs of regression, with their defensive unit featuring playmakers like Devon Dampier creating nightmares for opposing coordinators contemplating postseason matchups.
FREE: Project the Entire 2025 Season With the PFSN College Football Playoff Predictor
While Brian Kelly fielded questions about a lack of offensive firepower against the Florida Gators, another win for the LSU Tigers takes the program a step closer to a College Football Playoff berth. They’ve now got a 55.9% chance of making the final 12 teams, bolstered by a defense that looks like one of the very best in the country right now. That is most unlike a Kelly-led Tigers team that has predominantly thrived on offense.
In our college football bowl projections, they’re pitched against a Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets team that is riding high in the ACC after their walk-off field goal win over the Clemson Tigers. Brent Key’s team is currently a 20.7% favorite to win the ACC with a 34.8% chance to reach the playoffs. Haynes King and Jamaal Haynes can mix it with any team in the country right now.
Although Tennessee lost its first game of the year to Georgia, Josh Heupel’s team is still considered one of the frontrunners for the College Football Playoff. Joey Aguilar has outperformed expectations, and Tennessee’s running game is strong and multiple. Meanwhile, the defense is stacked with playmakers and will only get stronger when its pair of starting cornerbacks return to the field.
The Vols avoid the Ole Miss Rebels in SEC play, but our college football bowl projections thrust the two together in the first round of the playoff. Lane Kiffin’s team survived a close call with the Arkansas Razorbacks in Week 3. That said, the way the team performed with DII transfer Trinidad Chambliss replacing Austin Simmons at quarterback is a testament to the resilience in this roster and should be a terrifying prospect for anyone they face.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 7 LSU
- Orange Bowl: No. 4 Penn State vs. No. 5 GeorgiaÂ
- Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 6 Utah
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Ole Miss
The Oregon Ducks took a minute to get going against the Northwestern Wildcats in Week 3, but they still showed they’re one of the top teams in the country on both sides of the ball. Our college football bowl projections pit them against LSU, providing a fascinating battle between a young, emerging quarterback in Dante Moore and a veteran presence in Garrett Nussmeier. Our latest predictions give the Ducks a 60.6% win probability.
Although the Penn State Nittany Lions are 3-0, have a top 20-ranked scoring offense (20th) and defense (3rd) in the country, and a 40.9% chance of making the playoff, they’ve yet to convince many people of their true title-winning potential. Even as a narrow favorite on a neutral field (50.6%) in this matchup, you get the feeling Bulldogs’ head coach Smart would have the advantage over James Franklin.
Arch Manning mania is quickly subsiding in Austin, as the young quarterback’s early-season struggles have raised concerns about his ability to lead this Texas Longhorns team to the ultimate victory. However, the defense has proven strong enough to carry the team, and they have one more non-conference game to get right before heading into SEC play.
If Manning doesn’t show development, though, a clash with Utah would be the worst-case scenario in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal. The Utes’ defense hits hard and often. Could Manning keep pace with Dampier and the Utah ground game? Our projections give Texas a 1.5-point advantage on a neutral field, but there’s legitimate upset potential in this matchup.
The Ohio State Buckeyes look every bit the reigning champion right now, despite their offseason losses. They’ve yet to concede more than 10 points in a game, and with a plethora of offensive weapons at their disposal, you feel like they can conjure points whenever required. Although Ole Miss has a talented roster and coaching staff, this would likely be the least-close quarterfinal.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 5 Georgia
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Utah
While Georgia’s offensive resurgence under Smart cannot be dismissed, Oregon appears to hold the analytical advantage based on our comprehensive PFSN College metrics. The Ducks’ superior grades across multiple units — 93.4 College OFFi, 85.7 College DEFi, and 88.4 College Team OLi — all eclipse Georgia’s corresponding marks, with our CFB FPM projecting Dan Lanning’s squad as three-point favorites on neutral turf.
Utah’s impressive team metrics throughout the early season face their ultimate test against Ohio State’s championship-caliber defense. The Buckeyes enter Week 4 boasting the nation’s fourth-ranked defensive unit with a dominant 94.0 PFSN College DEFi grade. While both programs have excelled statistically, Ryan Day’s roster possesses the proven playoff experience and elite individual talent necessary to prevail when championship stakes reach their zenith.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No.1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Oregon
This has been a consistent conclusion to our college football bowl predictions since the start of the season, and there is little to suggest that we should deviate from this College Football Playoff National Championship Game premonition just yet. Both teams have had strong openings to the 2025 campaign, and look set to grow as young quarterbacks find their feet and figure it all out.
But who would win? The Buckeyes have a 53.4% win probability on a neutral field, according to our PFSN CFB FPM, and while this clash would likely be closer than the Rose Bowl beatdown that Oregon suffered in the playoff last year, Ohio State’s better defense and offensive line would likely prove the difference-maker. Can the Buckeyes go back-to-back? You bet they can.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
Delaware State vs. Alabama State
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
Boise State vs. Washington
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Cure Bowl
Old Dominion vs. East Carolina
68 Ventures Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Texas State
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Liberty vs. South Alabama
Gasparilla Bowl
Memphis vs. Pittsburgh
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Utah State vs. Buffalo
Boca Raton Bowl
Rice vs. New Mexico
New Orleans Bowl
James Madison vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl
Georgia Southern vs. Wyoming
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ohio vs. Nebraska
Rate Bowl
TCU vs. Iowa
First Responder Bowl
UConn vs. Kansas
Military Bowl
Virginia vs. North Texas
Pinstripe Bowl
Clemson vs. Rutgers
Fenway Bowl
SMU vs. Navy
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Florida State vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
UNLV vs. Toledo
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Southern Miss
Gator Bowl
Louisville vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl
BYU vs. Oklahoma
Birmingham Bowl
South Florida vs. Vanderbilt
Independence Bowl
Houston vs. Washington State
Music City Bowl
Michigan vs. Auburn
Alamo Bowl
Iowa State vs. USC
ReliaQuest Bowl
Illinois vs. Texas A&M
Sun Bowl
SMU vs. Arizona State
Citrus Bowl
Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona vs. Minnesota
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. UCF
Liberty Bowl
Baylor vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Holiday Bowl
NC State vs. California
Bahamas Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Bowling Green
