Our college football bowl projections ahead of Week 10 include a prediction for the entire playoff and bowl game matchups for every postseason tilt, all powered by our PFSN College Impact metrics and College Football Playoff Meter.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff First Round
- No. 12 Navy Midshipmen vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
- No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
- No. 10 BYU Cougars vs. No. 7 Oregon Ducks
- No. 9 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. No. 8 Vanderbilt Commodores
Week 9 couldn’t have played out any better for the Navy Midshipmen, who saw the USF Bulls fall to the Memphis Tigers while handling their own business against the FAU Owls. Brian Newberry’s team is now the Group of Five frontrunner to reach the College Football Playoff, with a 29.8% chance of winning the American Conference and 24.8% playoff probability.
MORE: PFSN Midseason All-America College Football Team
While several programs featuring in the 12-team postseason tournament in our latest college football bowl projections were on a bye, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, BYU Cougars, and Vanderbilt Commodores reinforced their status as College Football Playoff contenders. After beating the Oklahoma Sooners, the Ole Miss Rebels now have an 88.9% chance.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Quarterfinal
- Cotton Bowl: No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
- Orange Bowl: No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 Oregon
- Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
- Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech
The Ohio State Buckeyes were on a bye in Week 9, but the reigning national champions continue to be the pace-setters in our college football bowl projections. Ryan Day’s team has a 94.9% chance of reaching the postseason tournament, while being given a 20.2% shot to retain their crown as the best team in the sport, fuelled by excellence on both sides of the ball.
While the Buckeyes were on a bye, the Indiana Hoosiers and Texas A&M Aggies bared their teeth in a display of dominance that reinforces their place at the top of the college football table. While Indiana and Ohio State will meet in the Big Ten Championship Game (barring any insanity), don’t be surprised to see them ranked No. 1 and No. 2 on Selection Sunday.
College Football Bowl Projections | College Football Playoff Semifinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
- Peach Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 3 Alabama
The Alabama Crimson Tide narrowly avoided an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 9, and that inability to polish off an inferior opponent (coupled with the Week 1 loss to a terrible Florida State Seminoles side) might make people wary of a projected deep playoff run. Where there’s a Ty Simpson, there’s a way, and a semifinal berth could be the floor (and probably the ceiling) for Kalen DeBoer’s program.
If our college football bowl projections had featured Indiana and Texas A&M to start the season, you’d have laughed us out of the media industry, but there is a legitimate chance that both teams make it this far. As the lower-seeded team, the Aggies would take on the Buckeyes, and while they’ve proven they belong in the conversation, they’d be a six-point underdog.
College Football Bowl Projections | National Championship Game
- No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Indiana
A repeat of the likely Big Ten Championship Game as the College Football National Championship Game? Why not? We’ve seen stranger things happen before, and if it’s good enough for the SEC, it’s sure good enough for our college football bowl projections. On a neutral site, the PFSN FPM gives the Buckeyes a 57.4% chance of winning, with a three-point victory margin.
That would make it the closest title game since the Alabama vs. Georgia matchup that followed the 2017 season.
Projections for the Remaining 2025 College Football Bowl Games
Celebration Bowl
Delaware State vs. Prairie View A&M
LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk
UNLV vs. California
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Toledo vs. Old Dominion
Cure Bowl
James Madison vs. Temple
68 Ventures Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Coastal Carolina
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State vs. Troy
Gasparilla Bowl
Memphis vs. UConn
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Boise State vs. Ohio
Boca Raton Bowl
Buffalo vs. Appalachian State
New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl
Fresno State vs. Marshall
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Western Michigan vs. Maryland
Rate Bowl
Baylor vs. Northwestern
First Responder Bowl
East Carolina vs. Kansas
Military Bowl
Duke vs. North Texas
Pinstripe Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Illinois
Fenway Bowl
Clemson vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Virginia vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
San Diego State vs. Miami (OH)
New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico vs. Arkansas State
Gator Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl
Houston vs. Texas
Birmingham Bowl
USF vs. NC State
Independence Bowl
Iowa State vs. Washington State
Music City Bowl
Minnesota vs. Auburn
Alamo Bowl
Cincinnati vs. Washington
ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa vs. Oklahoma
Sun Bowl
SMU vs. Arizona State
Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Tennessee
Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. Nebraska
Armed Forces Bowl
Army vs. UCF
Liberty Bowl
Kansas State vs. Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Miami (FL) vs. LSU
Holiday Bowl
Louisville vs. USC
Bahamas Bowl
Jacksonville State vs. Central Michigan
