A loss in Week 12 has put Cincinnati’s chances of competing in the Big 12 Championship Game and taking part in the College Football Playoff at risk. With six teams in the Big 12 having one or two losses in Week 12, Cincinnati’s path to Arlington is suddenly looking tough, and they still have little room for error if they want to secure a spot in the playoffs.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Cincinnati’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Cincinnati’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Cincinnati a 10.0%Â chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their remaining conference games are vs. BYU (5-1, 8-1) and at TCU (3-3, 6-3).
Cincinnati’s fate rested in its own hands entering Week 12, but its loss to Arizona has changed that equation. They play BYU next week in what is a potential must-win if both Texas Tech and BYU win this week.
Cincinnati had been ranked by the CFP Selection Committee entering Week 12, but that is not likely to be the case entering Week 13. What that means is that Cincinnati’s only chance to compete in the College Football Playoff likely rests with them winning the Big 12. To do that, they need to win out and then potentially get some help.
Cincinnati has a loss to Utah and does not play Houston or Arizona State in 2025, which creates some potential issues for them if they rely on tiebreakers against the current two-loss teams. Losing to BYU would further compound that issue in terms of the tiebreakers, as well as potentially dropping them a game behind both Texas Tech and BYU.
What are Cincinnati’s Playoff Chances?
There were two routes into the College Football Playoff for Cincinnati: win the Big 12 Championship Game or be an at-large team. PFSN College FPM currently gives Cincinnati a 3.38% chance of competing in the College Football Playoff.
Our simulations give Cincinnati a 10.0% chance of playing the Big 12 Championship Game and a 3.38% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship Game. That leaves them with a 0.01% chance of making the CFP as an at-large team.
In the CFP, four teams receive a bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the first round entirely. Currently, our College FPM has Cincinnati as a top-four seed in 2.5% of simulations. That breaks down in the following way:
- #1 Seed: 0%
- #2 Seed: 0%
- #3 Seed: 0.78%
- #4 Seed: 1.73%
Our simulations also give Cincinnati a 1.11% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.38% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.12% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
