The Notre Dame Fighting Irish were projected to be in the 12-team CFB Playoff field ahead of the Conference Championship weekend. How do their chances change with Texas Tech’s Big 12 Championship victory over the BYU Cougars?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Notre Dame’s updated chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are Notre Dame’s CFB Playoff Chances After Texas Tech Win, BYU Loss?
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish entered the weekend ranked 10th overall in the updated CFB Playoff rankings, with a 79.5% chance of making the CFB Playoffs, per the PFSN College FPM.
Now, in the wake of Texas Tech’s win over BYU in the Big 12 Championship, Notre Dame officially has a 100% chance of making the CFB Playoffs. They’re one of ten teams who are mathematically locked into the CFB Playoff field, per the FPM’s calculations.
A BYU loss would have caused uncertainty for the Fighting Irish, as BYU would have entered the field, while Texas Tech would have also remained in. But with the loss to Texas Tech, BYU is out of the Playoffs, and Notre Dame’s spot in the pecking order remains theirs.
Conventional wisdom would say that the Miami Hurricanes — with a head-to-head win over Notre Dame — would be a greater threat to Notre Dame’s standing, but the CFB Playoff committee has consistently expressed favor of the Fighting Irish in their weekly rankings. That’s not likely to change ahead of the bracket deadline.
MORE: Strength of Schedule for All 136 FBS College Football Teams
That deference to Notre Dame has drawn plenty of criticism, as Notre Dame’s best wins came against USC and Pittsburgh. But the Fighting Irish did play Texas A&M close early in the season, and the offense has been firing on all cylinders with Jeremiyah Love and CJ Carr.
Ultimately, to be truly threatened, Notre Dame would have needed a BYU win. Now that BYU has lost, however, Fighting Irish fans can breathe a sigh of relief. There’s still a lot of shuffling to happen with teams like Alabama, Miami, Virginia, and James Madison — but Notre Dame should be set in the top ten.
Notre Dame has a 44.2% chance of being the 9-seed, and a 55.8% chance of being the 10-seed.
BYU Cougars Eliminated from CFB Playoffs with Loss vs. Texas Tech
The Cougars needed a win against Texas Tech to make the CFB Playoffs. With that second loss to Texas Tech, BYU instead comes out of Conference Championship weekend with an 11-2 overall record, two lopsided losses to Texas Tech, and no more Playoff standing.
PFSN’s College FPM gives BYU a 0% chance officially of making the CFB Playoff field.
This Conference Championship loss shouldn’t cast a pall on what Kalani Sitake has done for the Cougars — especially over the past two seasons. He’s been in Provo for a decade, but through 2024 and 2025, he’s gone a combined 22-4, and he had the Cougars in the Big 12 Championship in just their third season in the conference.
Sitake had, just earlier this week, spurned interest from Penn State to remain the Cougars’ head coach through a long-term extension, and optimism and overall buy-in are at all-time highs for the storied program.
Having said that, the Cougars haven’t yet made the CFB Playoffs under Sitake’s watch. 2025 was the closest they got, but their two blowout losses to Texas Tech show how far they still have left to go. And with Texas Tech leading the conference by far in NIL budgeting, it won’t be easy to close the gap.
Notre Dame is in, and BYU is out, but there are still a few more dominoes left to fall before we have a clear and finalized CFB Playoff picture.
