Following Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, BYU is one of just two teams in the Big 12 with only one conference loss. The odds are in their favor to make the Big 12 Championship game, but there are other contenders they’ll have to block out for the bid.
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine BYU’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
BYU’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives BYU an 89.7%Â chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game after beating the Cincinnati Bearcats in Week 13. Their remaining conference game is against UCF (5-6, 2-6), who struggled to defeat the Oklahoma State Cowboys this weekend. The PFSN College FPM has them winning out in 39.6% of simulations.
Arizona State is still alive by way of far-fetched probability, but if the Sun Devils win out, they have the head-to-head win over Texas Tech to both leapfrog BYU in an equal-win situation, or supersede the Red Raiders entirely if Texas Tech loses against West Virginia.
Having said all this, BYU has a simple solution when facing the issue of challengers: Just take care of business and win out.
Transitive property would suggest that BYU has the favor in the Big 12 title race, and the likeliest outcome remains a rematch between Texas Tech and BYU — but CFB chaos has been known to strike this time of year.
What are BYU’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. The PFSN College FPM gives BYU a 86.5% chance of making the College Football Playoff. They make the Big 12 Championship Game in 89.7% of simulations, and win the conference in 36.5% of simulations. That leaves them with a 50.0% chance of earning an “At-Large” selection.
BYU is currently ranked 11th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’re on the fringe of the CFB Playoff discussion, but are still positioned well. Notably, they’re positioned one spot ahead of Big 12 rival Utah, and can shut Utah out entirely by making the title game.
BYU’s best chance at making the CFB Playoff comes from winning the Big 12 title game, but there’s still a 50% chance of the Cougars making the 12-team bracket as an at-large team. If the likely Big 12 title matchup manifests, the Cougars will have — at worst — two losses to Texas Tech, a top-5 team. It’s hard to poke holes in their resume outside of that.
Our simulations also give BYU a 25.4% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 9.9% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 3.8% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
