The Big 12 has taken its lumps over the past couple of years, with high-profile teams departing the conference and a reduced say in the postseason in college football.
Last year, the only team from the conference to make it into the College Football Playoff was the Arizona State Sun Devils, who played against the ex-Big 12 Texas Longhorns before falling in double overtime. It was a terrific effort from a major underdog, but it didn’t do enough to solidify the Big 12 as a potential two-team player in the 2025 CFP.
While there’s still a slim chance of the conference earning an at-large bid, the battle for a Big 12 title will be something to watch this fall. With the help of our metrics, we provided our very own projections for the Big 12, complete with a projected regular season record, conference record, and percentages to win the conference, make the College Football Playoff, and more. Let’s get into it.
16) Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.0-7.0
- Projected Big 12 Record: 3.4-5.6
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 0.5%
- CFP Probability: 0.7%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
The Oklahoma State Cowboys’ bottom fell out a season ago, as they lost their final nine games. They return just a single starter offensively and still face questions over who will be the full-time starter at quarterback, with neither Hauss Hejny nor Zane Flores having any starting experience. Hejny will get the start in the first game, but Flores may also play.
Despite that, our metrics expect the Cowboys to make a two-win jump in 2025, improving upon their three-win campaign in 2024 and potentially saving head coach Mike Gundy’s job.
15) West Virginia Mountaineers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.4-6.6
- Projected Big 12 Record: 3.5-5.5
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 0.8%
- CFP Probability: 1.5%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
Nearly 50 players departed from the West Virginia Mountaineers this offseason, making 2025 a significant question mark for head coach Rich Rodriguez’s squad.
The offense will run through running back Jaheim White, who’s a tough runner. But outside of him and defensively, there are questions all around, as we project them to miss a bowl game.
14) Houston Cougars
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.6-6.4
- Projected Big 12 Record: 3.7-5.3
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 0.9%
- CFP Probability: 1.5%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
The new starting quarterback, Conner Weigman, hopes to bring some consistency to the quarterback position that was lacking a season ago, potentially raising the ceiling for the Houston Cougars.
Houston Cougars football QB Conner Weigman connects with receiver Koby Young during WR-DB drills. pic.twitter.com/IXghNo6uQs
— Pawd Slama Jama (@PawdSlamaJama) July 29, 2025
According to the metrics, the defense heavily relies on transfers to step in and fill prominent roles, leaving them just short of bowl eligibility.
13) TCU Horned Frogs
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.5-6.5
- Projected Big 12 Record: 3.9-5.1
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 1.5%
- CFP Probability: 3.2%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.2%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
The most crucial piece of the puzzle is back for the TCU Horned Frogs, as quarterback Josh Hoover came into his own in 2024. However, he’ll be missing his top two wideouts, Jack Bech and Savion Williams, with young talent expected to step up.
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Top tackler Johnny Hodges and top sacker Devean Deal are also back as pillars of the defense. Our metrics aren’t as high on the Horned Frogs as some, and we expect them to be on the verge of missing a bowl game.
12) Cincinnati Bearcats
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.9-6.1
- Projected Big 12 Record: 3.9-5.1
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 1.3%
- CFP Probability: 3.1%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.2%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
The Cincinnati Bearcats’ roster is largely similar to last season’s, as a small number of players left via the transfer portal. Back are quarterback Brandon Sorsby and his top target, tight end Joe Royer, as well as several talented pieces on defense.
The Bearcats jumped out to a 5-2 record last season before faltering down the stretch and missing bowl eligibility altogether, something our ranking predicts may happen again.
11) UCF Knights
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.0-6.0
- Projected Big 12 Record: 4.0-5.0
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 1.2%
- CFP Probability: 2.9%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
Head coach Scott Frost has his work cut out for him, as a large part of the UCF Knights’ roster has departed via the transfer portal. That didn’t include star running back R.J. Harvey, who was selected in the second round in the 2025 NFL Draft. Talent must be replenished from a roster that finished 4-8.
A positive for the Knights is that our projections have them with an exceptionally high floor and finishing with a 6-6 record. That would be considered a massive success in Frost’s debut season of his second coaching stint with the Knights.
10) Arizona Wildcats
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.6-6.4
- Projected Big 12 Record: 4.1-5.9
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 1.2%
- CFP Probability: 2.3%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
Nearly 40 players transferred away from the Arizona Wildcats this offseason, leaving behind the bones of a 4-8 roster.
Quarterback Noah Fifita is still here, but the supporting cast around him is uninspiring. Our metrics predict they’d make a near two-win jump in 2025, something that would be an uptick from a season ago.
9) Kansas Jayhawks
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.4-5.6
- Projected Big 12 Record: 4.2-4.8
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 2.1%
- CFP Probability: 6.9%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.4%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
The Kansas Jayhawks were firing on all cylinders in Week 0 against the Fresno State Bulldogs, with sixth-year senior QB Jalon Daniels looking like his best self. He had many weapons around him and was as efficient as possible, completing 18 of his 20 passes.
If that’s to continue in Big 12 play, the Jayhawks would have a good chance of defying our projections of them having a 2.1% of winning the conference.
8) Colorado Buffaloes
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.5-5.5
- Projected Big 12 Record: 4.2-4.8
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 2.9%
- CFP Probability: 7.8%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.6%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.2%
From a national perspective, 2025 may be considered a rebuilding year, but head coach Deion Sanders certainly isn’t thinking that way. That message was sent when he named fifth-year senior Kaidon Salter the starting quarterback over talented true freshman Julian Lewis. The time is now for the Buffaloes to win, at least in Sanders’ eyes.
Deion Sanders names Kaidon Salter @CUBuffsFootball starting QB. pic.twitter.com/CBeFQCqERD
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 26, 2025
Our metrics are low on them, as we have them between six and seven wins — a potentially disappointing season for Colorado.
7) Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.3-4.7
- Projected Big 12 Record: 4.8-4.2
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 5.4%
- CFP Probability: 12.5%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 1.3%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.5%
The Texas Tech Red Raiders went all out in the transfer portal, providing a lot of NIL money. It worked, as they reeled in one of the top transfer classes in the country. But will it be enough to supplant the Arizona State Sun Devils from the top?
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Our metrics say the Red Raiders’ chances of repeating as the Big 12 champions are only 5.4%, which is not a particularly high number.
6) Kansas State Wildcats
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.8-5.2
- Projected Big 12 Record: 5.1-4.9
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 4.6%
- CFP Probability: 10.2%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 1.2%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.5%
The Kansas State Wildcats have already lost a conference game, which has dampened their chances of winning the conference and making the CFP. However, if they can run the table behind talented QB Avery Johnson, there’s still a slim chance that they could have a successful season.
Unfortunately for the Wildcats, our metrics do not favor them, giving them just a 4.6% chance of winning the Big 12.
5) Baylor Bears
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.3-4.7
- Projected Big 12 Record: 5.4-3.6
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 9.8%
- CFP Probability: 20.4%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 2.7%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 1.1%
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson will be the determining factor in whether or not the Baylor Bears have success this fall. They finished with an 8-4 regular season record in 2024 behind an excellent Robertson campaign. Most of the defense was retained, and several highly rated transfers were added.
This is the year for the Bears, with a 20.4% chance to make the CFP — what could be a first for the program.
4) BYU Cougars
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.8-4.2
- Projected Big 12 Record: 5.4-3.6
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 10.8%
- CFP Probability: 22.6%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 3.2%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 1.3%
Following up on an 11-win campaign won’t be easy, but the BYU Cougars have the talent to do so.
The potential issue is that it’s all about true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who won the starting job in fall camp. If he’s impressive, the Cougars could be a real CFP contender.
Bear Bachmeier (#47) just became BYU’s QB1 and his aura is on 1000 🔥📈
(h/t @CF_Budge, via @BYUfootball) pic.twitter.com/oaKnB0ehH3
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) August 19, 2025
But if he’s not, they could finish with a three-win digression from their 2024 record, something our projections say is a real possibility.
3) Utah Utes
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.9-4.1
- Projected Big 12 Record: 5.4-3.6
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 14.3%
- CFP Probability: 29.7%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 5.4%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 2.4%
The Utah Utes began last season 4-0 and were among the favorites to represent the conference in the CFP. Then, the wheels fell off as they lost seven games before winning their season finale.
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Much of that was due to inconsistent quarterback play, which should be shored up by New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier, a dynamic rusher. Our metrics give them a solid chance of making the CFP — nearly 30%. That would be a significant win and one of the best comeback stories in the nation.
2) Iowa State Cyclones
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.1-3.9
- Projected Big 12 Record: 5.9-3.1
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 16.4%
- CFP Probability: 35.2%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 5.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 2.1%
The Iowa State Cyclones didn’t look particularly polished in their “Farmageddon” victory over Kansas State in Ireland in Week 0, but it goes down as a win in the conference standings. They’ll have to play much better to realize their potential of winning the Big 12, as we give them a 16.4% chance.
1) Arizona State Sun Devils
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.7-3.3
- Projected Big 12 Record: 6.1-2.9
- Big 12 Championship Win Probability: 26.3%
- CFP Probability: 48.7%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 11.8%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 6.2%
The Sun Devils were the Cinderella story of 2024, with head coach Kenny Dillingham leading a squad headlined by running back Cam Skattebo, quarterback Sam Leavitt, and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson.
Expectations are incredibly high in 2025, and Skattebo is out of the mix. Because of Leavitt and Tyson’s connection, more will be on the plate, and the entire conference will be circling their matchup against Arizona State.
Despite that, per our metrics, they have the highest chance of winning the conference and once again making the College Football Playoff.
