The ACC is quite an underrated conference, boasting many good teams but not many great ones.
As we settle down after work for the beginning of Week One, it’s nice to have a little bit of information about the ACC going into the season. Using PFSN’s College Football Playoff Predictor, here are the projected ACC standings for 2025.
Note: Data is rounded to the nearest tenth-decimal point.
17) Stanford Cardinal
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 3.7-8.3
- Projected ACC Record: 2.7-5.3
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 0.4%
- CFP Probability: 0.4%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
Projected as our worst team in the ACC, Stanford showed exactly why in their Week Zero matchup against Hawaii.
Poor clock-management late game, ugly quarterback play, stupid penalties that eventually led to a Hawaii touchdown, and an overall poor offensive performance. Maybe it needs to get worse before it gets better.
16) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.3-5.7
- Projected ACC Record: 3.5-4.5
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 1.1%
- CFP Probability: 1.7%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
Wake Forest was atrocious last season. According to TruMedia, the Demon Deacons were 133rd out of 134 FBS teams in defensive success rate, 129th in pressure generated, and consistently under-performed expectations, finishing 123rd in cover percentage.
Luckily, Wake Forest ranks 48th in the transfer portal rankings from 247 Sports, including South Carolina backup quarterback Robby Ashford. There isn’t much to build on, but you’d be hard-pressed to match a defensive performance as tough as 2024 Wake Forest.
15) Virginia Tech Hokies
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 5.8-6.2
- Projected ACC Record: 3.6-4.4
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 1.4%
- CFP Probability: 2.5%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
Virginia Tech is one of those perfectly crafted upset teams. They were great at rushing the passer last season, ranking 20th in pressure generated, and they were also very explosive on the ground, ranking 23rd in explosive run rate.
Their main downfall last season was a lack of success in the pass game. They gave up 14 sacks on third down last year, good for 115th in the nation. They also ranked 124th in pressure allowed last season.
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Unfortunately for them, their quick pressure rate allowed, as well as Kyron Drones’ quite impressive pressure-to-sack ratio, suggests this is a scheme issue. The Hokies’ 3.08-second time to throw was the 18th-longest in the nation.
New hire Phillip Montgomery coached Tulsa from 2015 to 2022 and we have data on their time to throw from 2019 onward. The results are a perfectly average 2.75-second time to throw (59th over that time period) which suggests Tech could see some improvement this year.
14) California Golden Bears
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.2-5.8
- Projected ACC Record: 3.7-4.3
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 1.8%
- CFP Probability: 3.5%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.2%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
Losing both your starting quarterback and starting running back to the transfer portal is never going to bode well for a team that already wasn’t very successful offensively.
Luckily, they just named true freshman Jaron Sagapolutele the starter, which means they either have a lot of confidence in him or not much in the others. Regardless, the kid was good in high school and hopefully things translate for him.
2025 doesn’t look particularly bright for the Bears. Our metrics predict about a 6-6 regular season with a shot to make a bowl game. Still, Cal matches up with some tough ACC foes like Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and No. 16 SMU.
13) Syracuse Orange
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.0-6.0
- Projected ACC Record: 3.8-4.2
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 3.1%
- CFP Probability: 4.7%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.4%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
Syracuse will be trotting out Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli at quarterback this season, which I think will turn out to be a good decision. Angeli never quite got the chance at Notre Dame, but I believe he is a more than capable power four starting quarterback.
Five-star wide receiver Johntay Cook joins Darell Gill Jr. as two very talented receiving options after certain circumstances led to Cook parting ways with Texas and Washington.
12) Duke Blue Devils
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.2-5.8
- Projected ACC Record: 3.8-4.2
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 1.8%
- CFP Probability: 3.9%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.2%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
Duke was incredible on both sides of the line last season, ranking third in pressure rate allowed and fifth in pressure rate generated. Maalik Murphy took strides in the passing game, throwing for almost 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns. Impressively, Murphy finished 22nd in PFF’s big-time throw rate while ranking 39th in turnover-worthy play rate.
Luckily for Duke, Tulane transfer quarterback Darian Mensah will carry the torch from Murphy, who left for Oregon State this season. Mensah is arguably even more impressive, throwing for 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions. However, if Mensah wants to have success at Duke, he will have to speed up his clock quite a bit.
Part of what helped Duke have such a strong pass game performance was that they had the second-fastest time to throw in the nation. Tulane, on the other hand, had the third-slowest.
11) Florida State Seminoles
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.2-5.8
- Projected ACC Record: 3.8-4.2
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 2.2%
- CFP Probability: 4.4%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.3%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
This is one of those cases where one thing went wrong, and then everything caved in right after. The Florida State Seminoles fell apart after QB Jordan Travis broke his leg, and they were left out of the 2023 College Football Playoff.
The defense was only slightly below average last season, but it struggled to find success because of one of the worst offenses in college football.
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In fact, Florida State ranked 125th last year in the amount of time spent in the lead. The Seminoles’ defense ranked 113th in opponent points per drive on plays where they were trailing, but jumped all the way to 56th on plays where the game was tied or they had a lead.
The silver lining is that maybe QB Thomas Castellanos can give this offense the juice it needs.
10) Boston College Eagles
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.3-5.7
- Projected ACC Record: 3.8-4.2
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 3.4%
- CFP Probability: 6.1%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.5%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.2%
Bill O’Brien came in and delivered Boston College a bowl appearance, which is a solid start in his first season with the team. Dylan Lonergan will start for the team with Castellanos at Florida State and hopefully continue with his momentum from the summer.
Grayson James came in as the starter, so Lonergan’s being named the starter shows that he must have really balled out. The offensive line won’t be as good, losing two starters to the NFL in Ozzy Trapillo and Drew Kendall, but overall, they have some quick receivers, a talented quarterback, and a good coach.
9) Pittsburgh Panthers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.3-5.7
- Projected ACC Record: 3.9-4.1
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 2.7%
- CFP Probability: 5.5%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.3%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
The Pittsburgh Panthers were very promising last season, which I think carries into 2025. Pittsburgh’s offense was good outside of poor offensive line play (112th in pressure rate) and turnovers. They ranked 15th in red zone touchdown percentage, 28th in drives with a first down or a score, and 31st in points per game.
Eli Holstein is back for Year Two, and I expect him to take a leap in production and development. He had some good and some bad last year, but at the end of the day, he was still a true freshman who finished with 17 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 7-3 record, including seven straight wins.
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They also return one of the best linebacker cores in the nation, with Kyle Louis, Rasheem Biles, and Braylan Lovelace, as well as Jimmy Scott, who led the team in pressures last season. This was already a top defense, ranking 10th in defensive success rate, 24th in pressure rate, and 34th in explosive play rate allowed.
The Panthers could make some noise this season.
8) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.3-5.8
- Projected ACC Record: 3.9-4.1
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 3.2%
- CFP Probability: 6.0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.4%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
If there was a team on this list that could easily disprove our projections and finish atop the ACC, it’s the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Yellow Jackets have quite an impressive offense, led by quarterback Haynes King, who put the world on notice against Georgia in 2024.
They ranked 33rd in explosive rushing rate, 45th in explosive passing rate, sixth in pressure rate allowed, 23rd in EPA (expected points added) per play, and 55th in points per game. Outside of King, Georgia Tech also has Jamal Haynes, who contributed to their five yards per carry (32nd). He posted his second straight season of over 800 yards rushing and seven or more touchdowns.
If their defense can perform well this season and be average, they have a fighting chance in the ACC.
7) North Carolina Tar Heels
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.4-5.6
- Projected ACC Record: 3.9-4.1
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 2.2%
- CFP Probability: 4.5%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.3%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
With Bill Belichick in town, it’s hard to talk about anything else surrounding the North Carolina Tar Heels. For the 2026 recruiting cycle, North Carolina has already jumped up to 17th in the rankings. This is a markedly better ranking than their 34th, 26th, and 31st rankings in the previous three years. Even better, we’re only in August!
That said, the Tar Heels still have to play football in 2025. They lost their top two pass rushers to Penn State and Ohio State and the next two to graduation or the NFL. This is dangerous territory for a team that was already average on defense in 2024.
6) Virginia Cavaliers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.3-5.7
- Projected ACC Record: 4.2-4.8
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 2.2%
- CFP Probability: 3.0%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.1%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0%
Virginia admittedly isn’t as talented as some of the teams behind them in this ranking, but they have a much easier schedule to help aid them in 2025. Virginia managed to miss all three of our top-ranked ACC teams on their schedule this year, which should be a blessing for a team that struggled heavily last season.
One of the nation’s worst red zone offenses, a defense allergic to stopping big plays, and an overall anemic offense were some of the issues plaguing the Cavaliers in 2024. Now, they turn to Chandler Morris from North Texas to save them. He threw for over 3,700 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions last season, so the talent is definitely there.
5) North Carolina State Wolfpack
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 6.0-6.0
- Projected ACC Record: 4.3-4.7
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 2.5%
- CFP Probability: 3.9%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 0.2%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 0.1%
The North Carolina State Wolfpack are one of my favorite sleeper teams this year. You won’t find many analysts as vocal about the skills of C.J Bailey as I am.
He was incredibly talented for the Wolfpack as a true freshman last season, throwing for 17 touchdowns and rushing for five more. When scouting Fernando Mendoza this summer, I was constantly in awe of the playmaking ability from Bailey at such a young age.
His ability to make plays outside the pocket is one of the traits that NFL evaluators love. Pair this with the fact that he is only 19 years old and entering his second year starting in college football, and you can see the potential. An added bonus is that he is 6’6″, 213 pounds, with clear potential for added muscle as well.
When you look at one of his top receiving options in tight end Justin Joly, you can come to grips with the loss of KC Concepcion to Texas A&M. Joly caught 43 passes for 661 yards and four touchdowns in 2024. His 15.4 yards per catch ranked fifth among 86 FBS tight ends who ran at least 200 routes.
4) Louisville Cardinals
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.7-4.3
- Projected ACC Record: 4.4-3.6
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 8.1%
- CFP Probability: 17.7%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 2.3%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 1.0%
True freshman running back Isaac Brown had the fourth-best “rookie” rushing grade since 2019 in our RB+ rankings. Miller Moss was solid but not great for the USC Trojans last season, throwing 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The good thing is that he is being handed the keys to an offense that has talent at skill positions and is relatively solid up front.
That said, the real strength of this team last season was the pass rush. Ranking third in pressure rate in 2024, Louisville lost its top four players in sacks, including star Ashton Gillotte. If they can replace the talent up front, the offense should be able to carry them to a solid season.
3) SMU Mustangs
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 7.9-4.1
- Projected ACC Record: 4.9-3.1
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 13.6%
- CFP Probability: 24.5%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 4.3%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 2.0%
SMU’s 2025 season has much more expectation than 2024. The defense finished 11th in pressure rate, 16th in defensive success rate, sixth in explosive play rate allowed, and 32nd in points per game allowed.
The offense matched this impressive output with a consistent and explosive pass game that ranked eighth in points per game, 17th in EPA per drop-back, 17th in explosive pass rate, sixth in drives with a first or a score, and eighth in drives where they reached the opponent’s 40-yard-line or better.
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Part of what made this offense so incredible was Kevin Jennings. Jennings finished with over 3,200 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He also chipped in 433 yards and five scores on the ground. He wasn’t the greatest at taking care of the ball, but he was good at avoiding sacks and making big plays.
2) Miami Hurricanes
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.1-3.9
- Projected ACC Record: 5.2-2.8
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 16.4%
- CFP Probability: 30.9%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 5.5%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 2.5%
While I am not the biggest fan of Carson Beck, it is pretty nice for Miami to go from the number one overall pick to someone with major experience on an elite team and enough talent to get the job done against inferior competition.
To illustrate my point, Beck faced 12 different defenses in 2024. The four that he faced were ranked in the top 10 in points allowed per game. He averaged -0.04 EPA per drop-back, which would put him 104th in the nation. For context, out of 30 quarterbacks who played more than 15 drop-backs against these teams, Beck ranked 11th in EPA. Not great, but not terrible either.
Overall, the Hurricanes have a pretty solid roster this season despite the departure of Cam Ward and the loss of Isaiah Horton in the transfer portal.
Speaking of the transfer portal, they have the number three-ranked class and return some important players like star offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa. While I think they fall to Notre Dame in Week One, Miami is a solid candidate to have another 10-win season and maybe make the playoffs.
1) Clemson Tigers
- Projected Win-Loss Record: 8.8-3.2
- Projected ACC Record: 5.7-2.3
- ACC Championship Win Probability: 34.0%
- CFP Probability: 49.8%
- CFP National Championship Appearance Probability: 15%
- College Football National Champion Probability: 8.3%
This one feels pretty obvious to me when you look at how loaded the roster is. Lots of projection from now until April, but the Clemson Tigers have several projected first-round picks in both this year’s draft and 2027 — Cade Klubnik, Peter Woods, TJ Parker, Antonio Williams, TJ Moore, Bryant Wesco Jr., Sammy Brown, and AJ Terrell, just to name a few.
With one of the nation’s top defensive lines and a solid secondary, the Tigers can put pressure on opposing offenses. In contrast, their offense has arguably the best wide receiver trio in the nation, along with a seasoned quarterback who improved greatly in 2024.
Despite HC Dabo Swinney’s past troubles in the transfer portal, Clemson looks poised to make the National Championship this year. Once they do, their experience and depth could give them a huge advantage.
CFP?
College Football Playoffs