Entering Week 13 of the 2025 College Football season, Arizona State still had a chance to make the Big 12 Championship game — but the Sun Devils needed a little bit of help from those ahead of them in the pecking order. Did they get that help?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Arizona State’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Arizona State’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
After defeating the Colorado Buffaloes in Week 13, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives Arizona State a 12.6%Â chance of playing in the Big 12 Championship Game. Their remaining conference game is against in-state rival Arizona (7-3, 4-3).
Arizona State is 8-3 overall and 6-2 in conference play, with losses to one other two-loss teams: Utah. The head-to-head loss against a fellow title game contender isn’t ideal, but the Sun Devils have an ace up their sleeve: A head-to-head win over the conference leaders, the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Texas Tech and BYU are the conference’s two remaining one-loss teams, and the title game outlook is in their hands. If both Texas Tech and BYU win out, it’ll extinguish any hope for Arizona State, who has already lost starting quarterback Sam Leavitt for the season.
However, if BYU loses one of its remaining games, Arizona State has the head-to-head win over Texas Tech that BYU lacks. And if Texas Tech loses a stunner against West Virginia, Arizona State can use its head-to-head win to leapfrog Texas Tech outright in an equal-loss situation.
Having said all this, there’s an in-built pre-requisite for Arizona State: The Sun Devils have to win out — no exceptions — if they want to make the Conference Championship game. A third loss snuffs out hope completely, and Arizona won’t let them get away with an easy W.
What are Arizona State’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. For Arizona State, however, the only path forward to a potential CFB Playoff bid is to win the Big 12 title game.
The PFSN College FPM gives Arizona State a 3.9% chance of making the College Football Playoff — the exact same percentage chance that the Sun Devils have of winning the Big 12 Championship. The Sun Devils cannot make the CFB Playoff as an at-large team.
Arizona State is currently ranked 25th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings — far out of reach from top-ten billing and “At-Large” positioning. They’re ranked, at the very least — which keeps them eligible if they were to win their conference title game, but there is no margin for error for Arizona State, and their fate isn’t entirely in their hands, either.
Our simulations also give Arizona State a 2.7% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 1.1% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.5% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
