Entering Week 14, the ACC Championship Game scenarios still have six potential teams that could fill the two available spots at Bank of America Stadium. How did that play out as a fascinating slate of games unfolded for the ACC?
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the ACC Championship Game?
Entering the final week, six teams can still make it. Let’s take a look at the teams who are still in the mix, and their respective ACC Conference Game chances:
- Virginia (10-2, 7-1): 100%
- Duke (7-5, 6-2): 100%
- SMU (8-4, 6-2): 0%
- Miami (10-2, 6-2): 0%
- Georgia Tech (9-3, 6-2): 0%
- Pittsburgh (8-4, 6-2): 0%
With all games completed in the ACC regular season, the Virginia Cavaliers and the Duke Blue Devils will compete to be named the conference champions. The ACC Championship Game lineup is set.
Virginia’s ACC Championship Game Chances
The PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Virginia an 79.6% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game ahead of their matchup with the Virginia Tech Hokies. By the end of that encounter, traditionally a difficult hunting ground for the Cavaliers, the program had booked its first appearance in the conference title game since 2019.
Duke’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Duke a 37.2% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game after winning its season finale against Wake Forest. The Blue Devils ended the year with a 6-2 record in the ACC and 7-5 overall.
However, after SMU lost to Cal in the latest ACC game to finish, the Blue Devils booked their spot in the ACC Championship Game. Remarkably, everything that Duke needed to happen to make it to Charlotte came to fruition on Saturday, completing an improbable second season of the Manny Diaz era.
SMU’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave SMU a 68.7% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game ahead of their remaining conference game at California. The PFSN College FPM gave them a 68.7% chance of winning that game.
However, in one of the most dramatic games of the weekend, the Mustangs missed a last second field goal to tie the game. With a 38-35 defeat to the Golden Bears, SMU will not play in the ACC Championship Game.
Miami’s ACC Championship Game Chances
The Miami Hurricanes were a significant long shot to reach the ACC Championship Game entering Week 14, with less than a 0.1% chance to make it to Charlotte. In a rollercoaster of a weekend, Mario Cristobal’s team saw their chances shoot up past 28% with a win over Pitt, before a Duke win knocked those probabilities down a peg or two.
However, that opportunity to play in the conference decider evaporated as day turned to night across the ACC landscape. Virginia taking down Virginia Tech was a death knell for the Hurricanes’ chances. Entering the evening slate, they needed Virginia and SMU to lose, with NC State to win.
Georgia Tech’s ACC Championship Game Chances
Entering Week 14 without any remaining ACC games, Georgia Tech had no control over the coming outcome, placing them at a significant disadvantage. They needed Virginia, SMU, and Duke to all lose in Week 14, while requiring an NC State win to throw another wrinkle into the mix.
Firstly, Pittsburgh’s loss to Miami was a serious spanner in the works for the Yellow Jackets. Then Duke beat Wake Forest, meaning that Georgia Tech can no longer reach the ACC Championship Game.
Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Game Chances
Entering Week 14, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Pittsburgh a 22.4% chance of playing in the ACC Championship Game. They needed one of SMU or Virginia to lose in order to even have a shot at the title, while taking care of business against the Miami Hurricanes.
MORE: Strength of Schedule for All 136 FBS College Football Teams
However, for the second successive week, the Panthers were humbled by a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, falling to a defeat against the Miami Hurricanes. As such, they can no longer reach the ACC Championship Game.
ACC Two-Team Tiebreakers
The ACC two-team tiebreakers could be used in the following situations: to break a tie for first place in the standings, to determine the “home” team for the ACC Championship Game, or in the event of a tie for second place in the standings, to determine the “road” team that participates in the ACC Championship Game.
The two-team tiebreakers will be applied in the following order:
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against all common opponents.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
4) Combined win percentage of each team’s conference opponents.
5) The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics, following the conclusion of all regular-season games.
6) A random draw.
ACC Three (or more) Team Tiebreakers
At each stage of the following procedure, if any team is eliminated from the tiebreak, then all remaining teams will start again from the first step in the process:
1) If all teams are common opponents, then the combined head-to-head win percentage is used.
2) If one team defeated or was defeated by all the others in the tiebreaker, they shall be removed at this step.
3) Win percentage against all common opponents.
4)Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
5) Combined win percentage of each team’s conference opponents.
6) The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics, following the conclusion of all regular-season games.
7) A random draw.
