The New York Jets’ 2025 season has unraveled fast. What was supposed to be a reset under first-time coach Aaron Glenn turned into a grind with Justin Fields failing to emerge as the long-term answer (PFSN’s QBi ranks him at 33rd for the season with 69.1 impact score). Additionally, the key defensive pieces traded away, as well as midseason wins, potentially harmed the team’s draft position.
At 3-13, the Jets are in the top tier of the 2026 NFL draft order. But landing the No. 1 overall pick? That’s where things get complicated, and incredibly unlikely.
What Are the Chances of the New York Jets Landing No. 1 Pick in the 2026 Draft?
According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, the New York Jets currently have a 0.1% chance of getting the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft. For context, the Las Vegas Raiders dominate those odds at 89.2%.
The Raiders are 2-14, giving them the league’s worst record heading into Week 18, while the Jets are 3-13. Even if New York finishes with the same record as Las Vegas, draft tiebreakers, determined by strength of schedule, are working heavily against them.
For the Jets to enter the conversation, several key factors must come into play. First, New York would need to lose its Week 18 game against the Buffalo Bills. At the same time, the Raiders would need to upset the Kansas City Chiefs. Neither result is impossible on its own, especially if Kansas City opts to rest starters, but even that combination only gets the Jets to the starting line.
If both teams finish with identical records, the No. 1 pick goes to the team with the weaker strength of schedule. Currently, the Raiders hold a slight edge at .544, compared to the Jets’ .548. That difference is subtle, but closing it would require a near-perfect storm of Week 18 results.
Among the outcomes the Jets would need: The New York Giants defeating the Dallas Cowboys. The Tennessee Titans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Cleveland Browns upset the Cincinnati Bengals.
Additional wins by teams like the Chicago Bears over the Detroit Lions, the Los Angeles Chargers over the Denver Broncos, and the New England Patriots over the Miami Dolphins. Even Week 17’s Los Angeles Rams over Atlanta Falcons result factors into the equation.
Essentially, nearly every relevant game would need to break in a way that strengthens the Raiders’ opponents’ combined record while weakening the Jets’. That is why Walder’s projection leaves New York with a microscopic chance.
