With Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars, Calvin Ridley’s dynasty fantasy football stock was supposed to take off, but it didn’t happen for the 29-year-old.
Yes, he finished with over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns for the second consecutive healthy season. The production, however, came with peaks and valleys that saw him produce twice as many games with under 40 yards than over 100.
Does he still have access to the ceiling that we had hoped to enter last season? Is he a buy low, or is what we saw from 2023 what we can expect moving forward with decline knocking at the door as he ages?
Calvin Ridley’s Dynasty Outlook
The Ridley experience in 2023 was a confusing one for redraft and dynasty managers alike. He opened the season looking like a difference maker (eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown in Indianapolis), but he followed that up by catching a total of seven passes over the next three weeks.
#Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley has 2 TD catches today❕#DUUUVAL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
We are still looking at a physically gifted receiver on the back end of his prime in an offense that features a quarterback we all believe to be the long-term answer. The profile is still one that is enticing, but the first year left us wanting more.
Ridley thrived in certain spots, and that’s great, though we entered the season hoping that he’d be an alpha fantasy receiver that paired a viable floor with considerable upside.
- 104.5 yards per game with three TDs against the Titans
- 53.8 yards per game with five touchdowns in his other 15 games
While I certainly have my concerns, there is no denying that a year of repetitions in this offense can help. Ridley’s catch rate was a career-low 55.9%, and his production down the field wasn’t consistent enough to pay the bills.
- 1.76 fantasy points (half-PPR) per deep target in 2023
- 1.94 fantasy points (half-PPR) per deep target with the Falcons
The data point of 2023 hurts Ridley’s ranking from August, but it stands to reason to believe that there is still an upside in his profile as he gains comfort in this system after hardly playing for the two seasons before the down 2023.
Kyle Soppe’s Top 35 Dynasty WR Rankings
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) Stefon Diggs | BUF
21) DK Metcalf | SEA
22) Zay Flowers | BAL
23) Drake London | ATL
24) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
25) Davante Adams | LV
26) Mike Evans | TB
27) Tank Dell | HOU
28) Jayden Reed | GB
29) Deebo Samuel | SF
30) Calvin Ridley | JAX
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) Chris Godwin | TB
35) George Pickens | PIT
Should You Trade Ridley in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Ridley in the dynasty? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer makes it easy to find the best trade offer to make in seconds.
Buying Ridley isn’t a bad idea at his current cost; I’d just be careful about overpaying.
While I am confident that he has every ounce of the upside that we heaped upon him entering 2023, last season proves that there is a path to failure and that he isn’t a can’t-miss option.
MORE: 2024 Dynasty Mock Draft
Consider this:
- Over the past decade, eight WRs who were drafted in the first round saw over six targets per game in their age-29 season
- As a collective, they averaged 13.2 PPG, with seven of them averaging at least 11.2 PPG (sorry, Dwayne Bowe truthers)
- In 2023, 13.2 PPG was WR19
- As a collective, they averaged 13.2 PPG, with seven of them averaging at least 11.2 PPG (sorry, Dwayne Bowe truthers)
By viewing that as the most reasonable outcome and adjusting for the influx of promising youth at the position that has taken place over the past few seasons, you’ll understand my ranking of Ridley.
I think he’s better than what we saw in 2023 in the short term, but the peaks and valleys of his game aren’t likely to disappear.
