After overcoming early injuries to start the season on a strong note, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have unraveled over the past two months, losing seven of their last eight games.
Although a playoff spot remains up for grabs, head coach Todd Bowles now finds himself firmly on the hot seat, and nobody is fearing this Bucs team even if they sneak into the postseason.
What Are the Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances?
The Week 16 loss to the Panthers was particularly damaging for the Buccaneers, allowing Carolina to take the lead in the NFC South.
Now, since both Tampa Bay and Carolina lost in Week 17, the winner of their Week 18 matchup will win the NFC South and make the postseason.
To make the postseason, the Buccaneers must win the division, but Carolina currently holds the advantage. According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, Tampa Bay has a 39% chance of reaching the playoffs, compared with Carolina’s 61%.
Since Carolina lost in Week 17, the Buccaneers’ loss was not as damaging, as both teams enter the season finale separated by one game. The two division rivals meet in Tampa Bay in Week 18, and since the Panthers only have a one-game lead, these tiebreakers will come into play:
- Head-to-head record: 1-1
- Division record: Both 3-3
- Record against common opponents: Tampa Bay would hold the edge, 6-6 vs. 5-7
Carolina entered the finale with an 8-8 record, while Tampa Bay qualified with a 7-9 record, making Week 18 a true winner-take-all matchup for the NFC South title and a playoff berth.
The key takeaway is that Tampa Bay controls its own destiny. If they win next week, they can still claim a playoff spot and the division title. But the Bucs have struggled on both sides of the ball lately, and nothing is guaranteed. It’s wild to think after dropping seven of eight games, Tampa Bay is still just one week away from hosting a home playoff game.
There is a slight chance that a Buccaneers win won’t get them in. This requires the Falcons to win out and force a three-way tie. This would shift the head-to-head tiebreaker in Carolina’s favor because Carolina swept Atlanta, while Tampa Bay and Atlanta beat each other once.
According to PFSN’s Offense Impact rankings, Tampa Bay sits 23rd in the NFL, whereas they sit 20th in PFSN’s Defense Impact rankings. While injuries have certainly hurt the team’s consistency and fluidity this season, fans are left wanting more every game as Baker Mayfield and Co. fail to click seemingly every week. And recently, the Bucs have gotten plenty of reinforcements, so the injuries can’t be used as an excuse.
Despite the losing streak and mounting pressure, hope remains alive. Tampa Bay must win next week to keep their NFC South title streak alive.
“ Both teams enter the season finale with matching 8–8 records”
Not correct. Tampa is 7-9, Carolina is 8-8.