It has been a disappointing month for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have dropped five of their last six games. They have slipped to 7–7 despite a strong start to the season, and now the Carolina Panthers are in a position to win the NFC South.
The Buccaneers face a pivotal stretch that will determine not only their chances of making the postseason but also whether they can maintain control of the NFC South. Let’s break down Tampa Bay’s updated playoff odds and their chances of winning the division after their loss against the Atlanta Falcons.
What Are the Buccaneers’ Chances of Making the Playoffs?
Tampa Bay suffered a disappointing setback in Week 14, falling 24–20, to the Saints (who entered the game with just two wins). The Buccaneers turned the ball over on downs four times inside the Saints’ 40-yard line and were forced to settle for a field goal on their next-to-last possession.
A victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football would have boosted their playoff and division odds to 72.4% and 72.3%, respectively. However, the Bucs lost in embarrassing fashion, and their chances of making the playoffs and winning the division both dipped to 44.50% — a decrease of 15.8 percentage points.
The Zane Way 🥶
PRIME | NFL+ pic.twitter.com/9sXQiOHgks
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 12, 2025
While the Falcons had lost seven of their last eight games heading into Week 15 and were not expected to pose a major challenge, the Buccaneers were unable to stop them. They lost 29-28 after Kirk Cousins led a game-winning drive to pull off a big upset.
If the Panthers defeat the Saints on Sunday, the Bucs’ odds of making the playoffs will drop even further to 27.4%. If the Saints pull off another upset, Tampa Bay’s odds will sit at 66.4% (and the NFC South will likely come down to the two head-to-head matchups against Carolina). If the Bucs win both games against the Panthers, they will still win the NFC South so they still control their own destiny.
MORE: 2026 3-Round NFL Mock Draft: Jets, Raiders Trade Up for Quarterbacks in Round 1
Defensive struggles persist under Todd Bowles, as Tampa Bay ranks just 18th in PFSN’s Defensive Impact metric, and they were exposed against the Falcons (just like the Saints torched them last week).
Given the circumstances, the Buccaneers must approach every game with a playoff-level mentality. With both of its matchups against Carolina still ahead, Tampa Bay controls its destiny. Winning those head-to-head battles could firmly place them atop the division and secure their postseason ticket.
Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule includes two matchups against the Panthers in Weeks 16 and 18, and one against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, all manageable games that could secure both the division crown and a postseason berth if handled successfully.
