Fantasy football managers have been closely monitoring the Cleveland Browns RB depth chart this season. While Nick Chubb remains the star, his recovery from a torn ACL was always going to be touch-and-go as to whether he would be ready for the 2024 season.
With Chubb expected to miss time, Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong Jr. lay in wait as the next group that could stake a claim to a starting role in his absence. Let’s take a look at the fantasy outlooks of the four running backs that could be potential candidates to select in fantasy drafts for 2024.
Nick Chubb’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 174.4 (154.6 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1,059.6
- Rushing Touchdowns: 5.1
- Receptions: 20.1
- Receiving Yards: 148.1
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.5
When healthy, we know what we’re getting from Chubb. From 2019-2022, he averaged between 15.9 and 17.3 fantasy points per game. That’s remarkable predictability in a sport where few things are predictable.
Despite being past the age apex, Chubb was as elite a rusher as ever in his limited action last season. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry on his 28 attempts. If Chubb can fully recover — even in his age-29 season — there’s little reason to expect his skills to wane.
Unfortunately, Chubb’s knee injury wasn’t your standard ACL tear. He tore three ligaments and dislocated his knee. As well as his recovery has been reported to be going, there’s a nonzero chance Chubb never regains the speed and explosiveness that made him one of the best pure runners in NFL history over the past half-decade.
For Chubb, we have to do an internal cost/benefit assessment of whether six, eight, or 10 weeks of Chubb is worth more than the alternatives going around him.
When players are suspended, this proposition is much easier. We know the player is coming back healthy, so all we have to deduce is whether not having that player’s production for a certain predetermined number of weeks is worth drafting him at his ADP.
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In a situation like Chubb’s, we don’t know when he’ll return. Most importantly, we don’t know what level of production we’re getting when he does.
Is the potential for Chubb to be a league winner there? Absolutely. Unfortunately, I don’t believe the chance is high enough to justify stashing him for an indeterminate amount of time, hoping he returns near his peak ability.
I have Chubb ranked as my RB41, which is far enough below consensus that I’m unlikely to land him. If you’re more optimistic about his recovery, then by all means, draft him. It’s just not something I can recommend based on the information we have.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jerome Ford’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 166.6 (138.6 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 769.0
- Rushing Touchdowns: 3.7
- Receptions: 28.0
- Receiving Yards: 203.0
- Receiving Touchdowns: 3.2
Ford is a great example of why you should wait as long as you can to hold your redraft. His ADP will swing wildly with every update we get with Chubb, and that will impact interest levels in him.
As things stand now, Ford and Chubb are priced outside the top 30 at the position. Both are reasonable buys at that price, but I don’t see it sticking with the news Chubb could start on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Chubb’s price is likely to drop a little, and Ford’s could reasonably jump into the RB25 region.
Ford’s overall numbers were strong last season, but I have my concerns when it comes to sustainability, especially if we learn that Chubb’s health takes a step backward.
If we remove two outliers, Ford’s fantasy points per touch dip by 10.3%. He has some explosive potential in his profile, which can be great, but it also opens the door for a low floor any week in which he fails to hit a home run.
Even if the current prices remain on draft day, I’ll be drafting Chubb with consistency. I’m more comfortable betting on his talent than I am on Ford’s. If Ford’s price rises by 10+ spots at the position, then he’s a player I am staying clear of in drafts.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Pierre Strong Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 65.6 (54.4 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 350.5
- Rushing Touchdowns: 1.8
- Receptions: 11.2
- Receiving Yards: 82.0
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
Strong is an intriguing proposition after D’Onta Foreman was cut. He is now set to open the season as the Browns’ RB2 and is one injury away from potentially starting. The long-term outlook is less exciting, as he would fall to an RB3, and we know what that looks like already.
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Strong is an intriguing option for the Browns, but he could be on a depth chart that is full of talent later in the season. Even if an injury to Ford early in the season opens a path for him, that path could quickly be blocked by the imposing sight of Chubb.