Sean Payton’s long, methodical rebuild in Denver finally came full circle in 2025, and it showed in the standings. The Broncos powered through one of the AFC’s toughest divisions to finish 14-3, locking up the conference’s No. 1 seed and reclaiming Mile High as a postseason problem for visiting teams.
After a first-round bye, Denver now hosts the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. While Josh Allen will be the ultimate X-factor, the Broncos can lean on the NFL’s top-ranked defense to slow him down. If Denver advances, who would the Broncos face in the AFC Championship Game?
Broncos’ Potential AFC Championship Opponent
The Broncos may not carry the typical No. 1 seed feel, with many labeling them underdogs despite home-field advantage. But PFSN’s Playoff Predictor still gives Denver a 54.4% chance to beat the Bills, a reassuring number for Broncos fans.
The two teams last met in the 2024 postseason, and even against Denver’s top-ranked defense, Josh Allen found success. He threw for 272 yards and two touchdowns, added 46 rushing yards, and led Buffalo to a 31–7 win.
This time, however, the context is different. Buffalo’s pass-catching group is weaker than it was a year ago, while Denver enters off a bye and benefits from playing at home. A tight contest is expected, but if the Broncos advance, they will host either the Houston Texans or New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
As the AFC’s top seed, Denver would host the title game on January 25 against the winner of Sunday’s Texans–Patriots Divisional Round matchup. Per PFSN analytics, there’s a 28.0% chance of a Broncos-Patriots matchup, and a 26.4% chance of a Broncos-Texans matchup.
A potential Broncos–Texans showdown would feature the league’s two best defenses. Denver and Houston rank first and second in PFSN’s Defense Impact metric, respectively.
Their regular-season meeting reflected that dominance, with the Broncos escaping with an 18–15 win in a low-scoring affair. However, Houston did not have C.J. Stroud under center for the entire game, and it’s something that could swing the balance in a rematch.
Denver’s last meeting with New England came in Week 17 of the 2023 season, before either Bo Nix or Drake Maye had entered the league. While the Patriots’ defense has taken a significant step forward, the matchup would still pit Denver’s league-best defense against an elite offensive unit led by Maye.
The Broncos would be favored in either scenario, but New England may offer the better matchup. Regardless of the opponent, PFSN analytics give Denver a 30.3% chance of reaching the Super Bowl, best in the AFC and second-best among the remaining eight playoff teams.
