Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers is a high-pedigree player that the fantasy football industry wanted to land in a clean spot to produce immediately. This situation is not that with question marks under center, a bona fide target earner, and draft capital already spent at the position.
Is Bowers’ raw talent enough to overcome an unideal offensive environment?
Should You Select Brock Bowers at His Current ADP?
ADP: 99th Overall (TE11)
That back-of-the-napkin math checks out with Bowers’ current ADP (TE11). He’s being drafted as part of a large tier that essentially is one big game of chicken with managers who have waited to address the position.
If that’s the situation you find yourself in and all of the tight ends available have a similar projection, why draft one in Rounds 8-9? Few managers are going to draft two tight ends. There won’t be much of a drop-off in the option you get at this point from the one available a handful of rounds later.
Brock Bowers: Weapon
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft)
Around the 100th overall pick, I’d much rather invest in the upside at the wide receiver position in Keon Coleman, Jameson Williams, or Brian Thomas Jr.
Bowers caught 26 touchdown passes (and ran for another five) during his time in college. That pedigree earns him our attention, but from a roster construction standpoint, I’m not going to have much redraft exposure to Bowers.
Dynasty — now that’s a different discussion.
Pro Football Network’s Draft Analyst Ian Cummings had this to say about Bowers heading into the 2024 NFL Draft.
“Bowers is around average size for a traditional tight end, but that’s one of the only knocks on his profile. Within his mold, he’s a true size/speed freak with the long-strider range to chew up space vertically and destroy tackling angles in space.”
Bowers’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Let’s face facts, the disappointment of Kyle Pitts in fantasy circles has managers skittish about investing in a first-round tight end in a murky situation.
Similarities
- Excellent playmakers down the field
- First-round draft capital
Differences
- More YAC potential
- Fewer physical gifts
You can, of course, read those profiles in a variety of ways. For me, they suggest that Bowers is more likely to be a consistent fantasy producer, but at the cost of upside throughout his career.
Pitts, to a degree, took the league by storm and has regressed since. I’d be surprised if Bowers neared Pitts’ first-year raw numbers (68 catches for 1,026 yards), but similar per-target production (1.61 PPR points per target) is very much in play.
This leads us to the target projection. Only two Raiders saw 55+ looks in the passing game last season (Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers), a group that I expect Bowers to join this year. However, there isn’t much room for upward mobility.
Michael Mayer was a second-round pick just a season ago, and while I expect Bowers to be the top priority at the position, this could look something like the Atlanta Falcons backfield last season — one that also featured consecutive years with investment.
In Atlanta last season, Bijan Robinson held roughly a 59% to 41% opportunity edge over the incumbent Tyler Allgeier. Mayer averaged 2.9 targets per game last season, and current Green Bay Packer Josh Jacobs saw 4.2 per game.
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If we give the TE position half of Jacobs’ usage (a very optimistic projection) and keep Austin Hooper’s target count with the position, we’re looking at 6.5-7 opportunities to be had.
If Bowers assumes the Robinson role from above, we come out to roughly four targets per game. At Pitts’ per-target production rate from his rookie season, that would land Bowers at 6.4 PPR fantasy points per game (TE9 in 2023).
That projection is a bit on the optimistic side. If he loses just a point per game, his ranking falls from TE9 to TE14.