The Washington Commanders will face the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Brian Robinson Jr.
Is Brian Robinson Jr. Playing vs. the Lions?
Robinson was not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Commanders’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Brian Robinson Jr. in the Divisional Round?
Playing DFS is often about telling a story — a story for each game and for the slate as a whole. Your precision in storytelling needs to be honed this week due to the nature of the slate, and while I could see how you could get there on Brian Robinson Jr., it’s a tale I’m not willing to say with my trust.
This season, the Commanders rank fifth in the percentage of yards gained on the ground when the game is tied or they have a lead (13th when trailing), and the best way to defend the 2024 Lions is to keep them off the field. Your story involves the second-highest-scoring first-quarter team in the NFL (6.1 PPG) jumping out to a lead and operating from a position of power.
Like I said, I can see how you land on that narrative. If you nail this script, you’re getting 17+ touches (a number Robinson has reached seven times this season) at a major discount and picking up on the field as Washington dictates the tempo and Detroit’s skill position players are relegated to spectating.
Am I talking myself into exposure here?
Not so much. Robinson has failed to clear 13 carries in four straight games and, realistically, hasn’t earned any role extension (under 2.5 yards per carry in three of those contests). I thought Austin Ekeler looked fine over the weekend. While Robinson caught a season-high four passes last week, he’s largely underwhelmed on the versatility front this season.
At the end of the day, I’m comfortable betting against the script in this story, but also how much you realistically gain if you are right. Last week, 19 of Robinson’s 16 rushing yards came after first contact … that’s not a typo, friends; that’s a problem. The Lions’ defense is clearly their weakness, but are we being a little harsh labeling this as a rich man’s version of the Bengals?
Lions’ run defense, 2024:
- Weeks 1-9: 21st in RB yards allowed per carry before first contact
- Weeks 10-17: 10th in RB yards allowed per carry before first contact
Detroit improved its number by 24.6% over that latter stretch (I excluded a weird Week 18 that saw their metrics tank as a result of a conservative game plan due to a big lead — if you think the Lions dominate this game, you’re not rostering Robinson anyway).
For me, there’s serious kill-your-lineup potential if the Lions end up racing out to a big lead. I think those odds are much better than the needed-to-have-Robinson-rostered-to-cash odds. There aren’t many pieces in this game that I’m avoiding, but Washington’s starting running back is one that I am.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Saturday, Robinson is projected to score 10.5 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 13.8 rushing attempts for 55.1 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. It also includes 0.8 receptions for 17.3 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Eagles' Defense
With Jalen Hurts MIA for the second straight week, the Philadelphia Eagles held on against the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round thanks to the disruptive playmaking of their defense.
Philly generated its fourth-highest sack rate in 2024 thanks to an uncharacteristically blitz-heavy game plan. The Eagles blitzed 22% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks, their fifth-highest rate all season. It worked spectacularly, as they generated two sacks and five pressures when blitzing the Rams, along with a 46% pressure rate.
There isn't a single statistical flaw in Philadelphia's defense, which ranks top 10 in every metric that encompasses the Defense+ grades (except for sack rate, where they're 15th). That makes them favorites to win the NFC Championship Game, even with how spectacular Jayden Daniels has been as the presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.Â
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.Â
Conference Championship RB PPR Rankings
1) Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) James Cook | BUF (at KC)
3) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
4) Isiah Pacheco | KC (vs. BUF)
5) Kareem Hunt | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Austin Ekeler | WAS (at PHI)
7) Ray Davis | BUF (at KC)
8) Ty Johnson | BUF (at KC)
9) Samaje Perine | KC (vs. BUF)
10) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. WAS)
11) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at PHI)
12) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Carson Steele | KC (vs. BUF)
14) Reggie Gilliam | BUF (at KC)
15) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at PHI)
Commanders at Eagles Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders won 23.5% of their games last season – the fourth-worst win percentage for a team that took part in a Conference Championship the following season.
QB: Jayden Daniels became the first player in NFL history with 15 rushes and 20 completions in a postseason game where he averaged 9.5 yards per pass.
QB: Daniels became the first player in NFL history with two touchdowns and 12 rush attempts without an interception in consecutive games.
Offense: Including the playoffs, there have been 15 instances in which a team starting a rookie QB score 34 points this season – the Commanders have accounted for seven of them.
Defense: How impactful has the offense been in Washington? They’ve now allowed over 2.5 points per drive nine times this season – they’ve won seven of those contests. It should be noted that their six worst point-per-drive defensive showings have all come on the road.
Fantasy: Brian Robinson ran for 77 yards and two scores on 15 carries against the Lions on Saturday night. In his previous four games, he ran for 110 yards and zero scores on 38 carries.
Betting: Do you think we'll see points in this game? Washington has covered each of the past four games that have gone over the total.
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles lost two games in September and have lost one game since (at Washington, Week 16). In that loss, Philadelphia became the first team to score 21 points in the first quarter in a losing effort since the 2019 Texans (Divisional Round at Chiefs).
QB: Jalen Hurts is averaging 6.3 yards per pass in the postseason, down from 8.0 during the regular season.
Offense: Saquon Barkley has more rushing yards in touchdowns against the Rams this season (282) than any other player has for the season as a whole.
Defense: The Eagles have forced a turnover in 11 of their past 13 games (this coming on a streak of three turnover-less games in Weeks 6-8), including multiple in four of their past five games.
Fantasy: Hurts’ 44-yard TD on Sunday was the fourth longest by a QB inthe postseason, and he has now run for 29+ yards in 11 straight games (T-9th longest streak by a QB, the second longest streak of his career)
Betting: Since Week 10, overs are 2-0 when the Eagles play the Rams and 2-7 when Philadelphia plays any other team.
