San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has outperformed expectations in two of his first three seasons. With a ton of competition for touches on a run-heavy offense, can Aiyuk do it again? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Brandon Aiyuk’s Fantasy Outlook
The 49ers’ offense is a machine. Even if you swap out some parts, it still runs like new. Last season, amidst a roster featuring George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and eventually Christian McCaffrey, Aiyuk was the unheralded star. He caught 78 passes for 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns en route to 13.4 PPR fantasy points per game and a WR23 finish.
It was a strong bounce-back effort after a dreadful sophomore season that saw Aiyuk average just 10.0 ppg.
Contributing to Aiyuk’s rebound was his target share shooting up to 23.5% — 5% higher than the previous year. While the target share is nice, Aiyuk was still targeted on just 23.3% of his routes run, 37th in the league.
However, his 2.09 yards per route run was 24th, and his 9.0 yards per target was 22nd. Those are really strong numbers, especially for being his team’s WR2.
Aiyuk also benefited from a down year from Deebo Samuel, who averaged just 13.0 ppg. Given that I believe last year is more like the real Samuel than his superb 2021, Aiyuk should be able to maintain solid production on a relatively even level with Samuel.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Aiyuk at His ADP?
There are a couple of concerns regarding Aiyuk’s ceiling. First, the 49ers run the ball a lot. Last season, they had a 48% neutral-game-script-run rate, tied for fifth-most in the league.
Second, there’s the target competition. The 49ers will now have a full season of McCaffrey to go along with Samuel and Kittle. However, concerns over Aiyuk’s production with McCaffrey might be overblown.
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Last season, he did not see any change in his targets per game or fantasy ppg with McCaffrey. The only difference is he averaged 10 fewer receiving yards with McCaffrey, but that strikes me more as variance than anything else.
Finally, we have the 49ers’ uncertain quarterback situation. Aiyuk only saw his ppg drop by 0.9 once the team turned to Brock Purdy, but if it ends up being Trey Lance or Sam Darnold, that could be more problematic. Even so, it is not enough of a reason for me to fade Aiyuk.
Editor’s Note: Lance has been traded to the Dallas Cowboys.
Aiyuk currently has a WR28 ADP, No. 68 overall. That is slightly above my ranking of him at WR29. But by no means am I against drafting Aiyuk.
My projections have Aiyuk catching 73 passes for 962 yards and 6.4 touchdowns. He came out as the WR31, averaging 12.2 ppg.
Given his cost in fantasy drafts, that would be a fine outcome. Given his history of performance, we know that he has the upside to finish inside the top 24. Fantasy managers don’t necessarily need to aggressively target Aiyuk, but if he’s the right guy at your pick, don’t shy away from him either.
