We all have a pretty good sense of how to value the Bills’ wide receivers these days. But what will people be saying after Monday Night Football? Player values in fantasy football change on a dime. Here are the value shifts I’m anticipating for Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley after tonight and into Week 7.
Bills WRs to Sell High
The following Buffalo wideouts are overvalued into tonight’s Week 6 matchup against Tennessee.
Stefon Diggs
Last year, Stefon Diggs was elite. This year, he’s the No. 27 WR in points per game. This summer, I warned readers that what he did in 2020 was a ceiling, not a floor. Diggs scored 62 more fantasy points than he had in his second-best season, primarily due to leading the league with 166 targets. The offseason arrival of Sanders (82 targets in 2020) was likely to result in a reduced target share for the seemingly elite Diggs.
And that is what’s happened. Diggs averaged 10.4 targets per game last year but is receiving only 9.6 this year. That might not seem significant, but it’s an 8% drop. And while the Bills gave up 23.4 points per game last year, they’re yielding only 12.8 per contest this year. The team’s defense has allowed Buffalo’s passing game to phase out later in games, as they have largely focused on protecting leads rather than mounting comebacks. In fact, the most targets and receptions Diggs has earned this season came during their only loss (Week 1).
Buffalo’s next four games are against the Titans, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Jets. In other words, the Bills should be comfortably ahead much of the time. Diggs remains a fantastic receiver on the field. And he might get you two or three WR1 performances the rest of this year. But on this team, with their current personnel, Diggs is not much more than a WR2.
Emmanuel Sanders
I thought Sanders’ days as a fantasy contributor were over. The 34-year-old bounced between Denver, San Francisco, and New Orleans from 2019 (11.2 points per game) to 2020 (11.8 points per game). This summer, he joined a Diggs-led receiving corps with several complementary parts, including three returning receivers who combined for 213 targets last year: Beasley, Gabriel Davis, and up-and-coming tight end Dawson Knox.
Yet, Sanders is looking better than he has since his final “great” campaign with the Broncos in 2016. He’s averaging the 21st-most fantasy points per contest among WRs (15.8) despite averaging only 3.8 receptions on 6.2 targets. Folks, that is not sustainable. Neither are his 4 touchdowns in only 5 games. Sanders is the quintessential sell-high candidate — a boom-bust receiver who’s produced too many booms.
Bills WR to Buy Low
Which Buffalo wideout should you try to acquire?
Cole Beasley
Beasley’s value took the biggest hit when Sanders entered the scene, and his statistical decline continued when Knox began ascending in Week 2. While Beasley’s per-game targets and receptions are on pace to match last year’s, he has not yet scored. So hang tight, those of you still rostering Beasley. The odds are good that he’ll net 3-4 touchdowns before the season’s over. And this is the power of touchdowns: they can turn a WR5 into a WR3, and vice versa.