Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction, Pick: Will Josh Allen beat Patrick Mahomes in the Divisional Round?

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in the Divisional Round -- here's our pick and prediction for the Bills vs. Chiefs.

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs easily defeated the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively, in the first round of the playoffs. Both teams put on elite offensive performances, which is far from surprising. It’s important to emphasize how good each offense was in the Wild Card round last week. Below, you’ll find the NFL odds, along with my pick and prediction for the Bills vs. Chiefs Divisional Round matchup.

Barstool Sportsbook



Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs pick, prediction | Divisional Round

  • Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Bills +110, Chiefs -130
  • Over/Under: 55

Which offense will slow down?

The Bills put in a historical performance against New England last week. They scored a touchdown on all seven of their possessions. Buffalo offered versatility in their offense as well. Josh Allen threw for 308 yards and 5 TDs on only 25 pass attempts. He was flawless against one of the better defenses in the NFL.

He wasn’t the only player to find success, though, as Devin Singletary ran for 81 yards and 2 scores on 16 carries. Oddly enough, Stefon Diggs only posted 3 receptions for 60 yards with several other pass catchers adding value to their offense.

Kansas City’s offense wasn’t quite as dominant as Buffalo’s. They failed to score on any of their first five drives, recording an interception and coughing up a fumble that Pittsburgh returned for a TD. After that, Kansas City scored on six consecutive possessions. They only punted on their last drive of the game after giving up the touchdown to T.J. Watt.

Patrick Mahomes completely took over the offense, throwing for 404 yards with 5 touchdowns and 1 interception on 39 pass attempts. Travis Kelce also threw for a touchdown on a trick play. This game will likely come down to which offense makes more mistakes, as they both can find elite success in limited time on the field.

Bills vs. Chiefs betting trends

Buffalo has found success against the spread (ATS) this season. They own a 10-6-2 ATS record, covering by an average of 4.5 points per game. The Bills have also covered in four of their last five outings.

Kansas City hasn’t been quite as successful, recording a 9-9 ATS record over 18 games. With that said, the majority of their struggles came early in the season. The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last nine matchups.

The Bills have been neutral in terms of the game total in their contests. They’ve found the over and under in nine games each.

The Chiefs lean significantly more toward the over in their contests, posting an 11-7 over/under record in 2021, which ranks second in the NFL.

Bills vs. Chiefs prediction

This could be the most interesting game on the slate, as both the Bills and Chiefs could be favorites to win the Super Bowl without anyone questioning it.

This AFC battle will likely come down to mistakes. I don’t expect either defense to completely slow the opposing offense down, but there is a big difference between the passing defenses of each team.

The easiest way to beat Buffalo is on the ground, while teams have found success against Kansas City through the air. Allen is a bit of a wild card, as he’s shown to be a risk-taker in the playoffs before. Nevertheless, he looked elite against a tough New England defense last week, and I’m taking the underdogs to win outright.

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction: Bills 31, Chiefs 28

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