Bills RB Fantasy Outlook: Should You Draft James Cook and Ray Davis?

The Buffalo Bills‘ RB depth chart is a two-man crew of young RBs with potentially clear and defined roles. James Cook was the crew leader in 2023, showing off as a runner between the 20s and as a pass catcher. However, he often ceded goal-line work to Josh Allen and other RBs, providing an obvious path for the rookie Ray Davis.

Can any of them be useful for fantasy football managers this season? Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Cook and Davis in 2024.

James Cook’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR fantasy Points: 258.9 (210.0 Non-PPR)
• Rushing Yards: 1224.4
• Rushing Touchdowns: 3.0
• Receptions: 48.9
• Receiving Yards: 469.1
• Receiving Touchdowns: 3.7

If I’m planning on a receiver-heavy start to my draft, Cook is highlighted in a major way on my cheat sheet. The Bills made it clear in their Week 15 dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys that they’re confident in Cook as a true bell cow (27 touches for 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns) and not afraid to go to a run-heavy scheme (Allen completed seven passes in that 31-10 win).

The raw numbers were great in that spot, but I’m more encouraged by offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s willingness to change the focus of an offense that consistently ranked among the elite in pass rate over expectation during the Josh Allen era.

Buffalo further showed us its desire to establish balance this offseason by trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and allowing Gabe Davis to depart to the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency.

Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, rookie Keon Coleman, and past washouts (Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Chase Claypool) make up Buffalo’s WR room, a depth chart that looks a lot like a team that will rely heavily on their budding star in Cook.

Including the postseason, Cook caught 82.5% of his targets and showcased the type of versatility that it takes to lead a team (be it the Bills or your fantasy squad). It’s rare to see a young RB receive 22 touches in consecutive playoff games in an offense with a franchise quarterback, but that’s exactly what we saw last winter.

Cook is currently being drafted as the RB14, a slot that lands him in the middle of the fourth round in most cases. I think that’s a reasonable price tag (though I would select him ahead of an inefficient back like Rachaad White), and one that I’ll be considering no matter the shape of my roster through three rounds.

Buffalo’s ability to move the football will play a big role in its ability to compete in the AFC, and based on what the Bills showed us late last season, Cook is set to be a major cog in this machine.

Ray Davis’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections

• PPR fantasy Points: 126.3 (102.3 Non-PPR)
• Rushing Yards: 594.5
• Rushing Touchdowns: 2.5
• Receptions: 24.0
• Receiving Yards: 240.1
• Receiving Touchdowns: 0.7

Investing in strong offenses is a good business decision in this fantasy game. Despite the movement this offseason, Allen figures to have Buffalo in position to score regularly. If you’re with me on that assumption, this rookie should have your attention. In 2023, a breakout campaign for Cook, the Bills’ RB1 ranked 27th in red-zone carries per game.

Let me say that again: 27th! In an offense that, per TruMedia, ranked fourth in red-zone plays and second in red-zone touchdowns. Buffalo made it pretty clear that they didn’t want to hand Cook the ball in scoring position, a desire that was driven home by their spending of a fourth-round pick on the 220-pound Davis.

Of course, Allen’s proclivity for rushing touchdowns doesn’t help his case, either. But if the Bills are turning to a running back at the goal line, we can expect them to lean on the rookie.

Cook has the potential to be a borderline special player, and given his late third/early fourth-round ADP, I’ll have shares of him. That doesn’t exclude Davis, though, from having enough TD equity in an offense that should be more balanced than in years past to deserve stashing.

Would you rather pray for a splash play from a receiver like Jermaine Burton when you’re navigating bye weeks or a hard-nosed running back capping off a drive from the 3-yard line?

In this range of fliers are Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Dameon Pierce, two running backs who I view as far less likely to have any standalone value. If an injury were to occur in either of those backfields, the plethora of viable pass catchers would give those offenses the ability to go to a pass-heavy script.

I’m not sure Buffalo can do that, given its offseason moves, making Davis both the safer and higher-upside option.