Buffalo Bills RB Ray Davis is unlikely to surpass James Cook on the depth chart after the incumbent impressed in 2023, but that doesn’t mean the former can’t hold value in redraft leagues.
Here’s a look at Davis’ profile and the role he could potentially fill for the 2024 Bills that would make him a nice stash after the first 50 running backs are off your fantasy football draft board.
Ray Davis’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Investing in strong offenses is a good business decision in this fantasy game. Despite the movement this offseason, Josh Allen figures to have Buffalo in position to score regularly.
If you’re with me on that assumption, this rookie should have your attention. In 2023, a breakout campaign for Cook, the Bills’ RB1 ranked 27th in red-zone carries per game.
Let me say that again: 27th! In an offense that, per TruMedia, ranked fourth in red-zone plays and second in red-zone touchdowns.
Buffalo made it pretty clear that they didn’t want to hand Cook the ball in scoring position, a desire that was driven home by their spending of a fourth-round pick on the 220-pound Davis.
Of course, Allen’s proclivity for rushing touchdowns doesn’t help his case, either. But if the Bills are turning to a running back at the goal line, we can expect them to lean on the rookie.
We have a scouting team here at PFN for a reason, and fantasy managers would be wise to lean on the film eye of both Ian Cummings and Derek Tate when it comes to the 2024 rookie class.
Here is what Tate highlighted as the selling points in Davis’ profile:
Top returning #SEC running backs (by yards per game in the 2022 season):
1⃣ Quinshon Judkins (120.38)
2⃣ Raheim Sanders (111.00)
3⃣ Ray Davis (86.63) 🎥
4⃣ Jaylen Wright (67.31)
5⃣ Montrell Johnson Jr. (64.69)pic.twitter.com/MWdGHu2llJ— College Football Network (@CFN365) July 17, 2023
- Plays with elite leverage and quality leg drive; Shoulder pads always seem to get lower than oncoming defenders at the point of attack.
- Surprises defenders in 1-on-1 scenarios with more hitch in his giddy-up than expected.
- Can stick his foot in the ground and generate the required force to accelerate to the edge or change directions with violent feet near contact.
- Regularly showcases patience and play-design discipline while navigating through traffic on the first level; Shows some deception with how he presses the hole late in the rep.
- Exceptional contact balance; Low center of gravity and strong legs allow Davis to maintain a strong base when attempting to dismiss undisciplined tacklers and immediately burst upfield.
- Strong finisher as a ball carrier; Wakes up in the morning and chooses violence when he decides to take the fight to the oncoming defender.
It’s that last line that sold me. Gus Edwards and Raheem Mostert both shared a backfield with an explosive young back in 2023. They tied atop the leaderboard when it comes to carries inside the 5-yard line.
Also appearing inside the top 12 in that metric was David Montgomery and, believe it or not, Buffalo’s Latavius Murray.
Cook has the potential to be a borderline special player, and given his late third/early fourth-round ADP, I’ll have shares of him. That doesn’t exclude Davis, though, from having enough TD equity in an offense that should be more balanced than in years past to deserve stashing.
Would you rather pray for a splash play from a receiver like Jermaine Burton when you’re navigating bye weeks or a hard-nosed running back capping off a drive from the 3-yard line?
I understand that Allen’s presence is a pain, but the process behind Davis is sound when it comes to a plug-and-play spot. If he gets three dangerous carries, he has the chance to get you through the week.
There is some contingent upside should Cook get hurt as well, making Davis a late-round pick I’m commonly making in all formats.
In this range of fliers are Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Dameon Pierce, two running backs who I view as far less likely to have any standalone value. If an injury were to occur in either of those backfields, the plethora of viable pass catchers would give those offenses the ability to go to a pass-heavy script.
I’m not sure Buffalo can do that, given its offseason moves, making Davis both the safer and higher-upside option.
Ben Rolfe’s Fantasy Analysis for Ray Davis
It is hard not to be excited about what potential Davis could bring to the NFL field as a fantasy asset. At worst, he should be able to have a solid pass-catching floor in PPR.
The problem is working out whether Davis will have a role alongside Cook. Last year, Latavius Murray had 96 touches, Johnson had 37, and Damien Harris had 25. That in itself is not going to translate into consistent fantasy value in a backup role. Davis could have some nice weeks, but fantasy managers will benefit only in deeper leagues or best ball formats.
Where the majority of Davis’ value comes from is as the handcuff to Cook. In 2023, Cook had 237 rushing attempts and 44 receptions. That is an average of 16.5 touches per game, which presents plenty of opportunity to return value.
At that level of potential usage, Davis could have solid RB3 value with RB2 upside if Cook were to go down. If you drafted Cook, Davis is definitely someone to consider in those final couple of rounds.
The other role that Davis could get thrust into is Curtis Samuel’s style of lining up in the slot and taking handoffs on jet sweeps, etc.
Davis has proven in college that he is a capable receiver, so if Samuel were to get injured, there could be another path to fantasy relevance. You are not counting on it, but it is always good to have some other options.