The Buffalo Bills were one of the best regular-season teams from start to finish. Buffalo clinched the AFC East back in Week 13 and were the only team to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes starting.
As a result, the Bills entered the AFC playoff bracket as the No. 2 seed — a Wild Card round matchup at home against the Denver Broncos is now in the books. With Buffalo holding serve at home, here’s who the Bills will see at home in the Divisional Round.
Who Do the Bills Play in the Divisional Round?
With the Ravens (3 seed) defeating the Steelers (6 seed) and the Texans (4 seed) defeating the Chargers (5 seed), the Bills will host the Ravens in the Divisional Round.
We do not yet know what day or time the game will take place, which will be announced before Monday Night’s game between the Rams and Vikings is over.
Here is the most updated playoff bracket following the Bills-Broncos game.
Could the Bills Host the AFC Championship Game?
Yes, but it will require major help in the Divisional Round in the form of an Arrowhead Stadium upset.
The Bills are guaranteed to host their first two playoff games as long as they win. However, they can only host the AFC Championship Game if the Chiefs are upset in the Divisional Round. Otherwise, Buffalo would head to Kansas City for the fourth playoff matchup between the teams in the last five seasons.
The Chiefs will host the Texans in the Divisional Round, where Kansas City is expected to be a significant home favorite coming off a bye.
The No. 2 seed has hosted a Conference Championship six times in the last 15 seasons. The 2019 Chiefs and 2010 Steelers won, while the 2021 Chiefs, 2012 New England Patriots, 2011 San Francisco 49ers, and 2010 Chicago Bears all lost.
What Were the Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Scenarios Entering Sunday?
As the No. 2 seed, there were two potential opponents for the Bills in the Divisional Round entering Sunday’s kickoff. We knew the two teams they could not face in the Divisional Round were the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and the sixth-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers (and the Broncos, obviously).
The key point to remember for all scenarios outlined in this article is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. The lowest remaining seed visits the highest remaining seed, unlike the majority of playoff formats (such as the College Football Playoff), where subsequent matchups are fixed based on the pre-existing bracket.
All scenarios and probabilities outlined below were updated following the Ravens’ win over the Steelers on Saturday night. The Pro Football Network Playoff Predictor projected Buffalo with a 63% chance of defeating Denver on Sunday.
Following Baltimore’s win, the Bills were set to host the Ravens next weekend if they could knock off the Broncos (which they did).
A win over Denver guarantees Buffalo will host a second playoff game at Highmark Stadium. As noted above, Buffalo cannot travel on the road until the AFC Championship Game and would only do so if the Chiefs win in the Divisional Round.
It’s worth noting that Buffalo lost to the Ravens in Week 4, albeit on the road in Baltimore. The Bills fell 35-10 to the Ravens, which was their third-largest loss in any game with Josh Allen as a starting quarterback (out of 120 games, including playoffs).