Success for the 2025 Buffalo Bills depended not on a sixth straight AFC East title but on winning the Super Bowl. The season was inconsistent. In Week 1, the Ravens led by 15 in the fourth quarter before Buffalo rallied with 16 points in the last four minutes to win.
The Kansas City Chiefs may be out of the picture, but Buffalo now faces newer, tougher challenges on its path to the AFC crown and that long-sought Super Bowl victory.
Where Will the Buffalo Bills Be Seeded in the AFC Playoffs?
Week 17’s loss to the Eagles ended the Bills’ bid for a sixth straight AFC East title. As a result, they will start the playoffs on the road for the first time since Josh Allen’s first playoff game in 2019.
The Bills secured the sixth seed in the AFC after defeating the New York Jets in Week 18. They will now face the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card round
The health of Josh Allen’s injured foot is a much greater concern for the Bills than who they will play next weekend or where they will play. Allen did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday, was only a limited participant on Friday, but managed to play in Week 18.
However, he played only one snap because it was the regular-season finale, and he extended his consecutive game streak to 122 regular-season games.
[The rest of the article is based on outcomes before Week 18 games were played.]
AFC Playoff Seeding Scenarios and Potential Matchups
Entering Week 18, the Denver Broncos own the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff bracket. They are tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in the conference at 13-3. However, Denver owns the tiebreaker over New England based on the best win percentage in common games.
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Broncos currently have a 63.3% chance of securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed. In comparison, the Patriots have a 25.8% chance.
Projected AFC Playoff Seeding
If our favorites in the above matchups win each matchup, here would be the projected AFC seeding:
1) Denver Broncos
2) New England Patriots
3) Jacksonville Jaguars
4) Pittsburgh Steelers
5) Houston Texans
6) Buffalo Bills
7) Los Angeles Chargers
Note that whichever team wins the Ravens-Steelers matchup on Sunday night will clinch the AFC North title and be the No. 4 seed in the conference. The Steelers win the division if the game ends in a tie.
Potential AFC Playoff Matchups
These are the most likely AFC Wild Card playoff matchups, according to our analytics:
- Chargers at Patriots: 53.7%
- Bills at Jaguars: 33.6%
- Texans at Steelers: 30.4%
- Chargers at Jaguars: 27.7%
- Bills at Patriots: 27.0%
- Texans at Ravens: 26.6%
- Texans at Jaguars: 18.8%
- Bills at Steelers: 16.3%
- Bills at Ravens: 14.2%
- Jaguars at Texans: 9.3%
- Bills at Broncos: 6.7%
- Texans at Patriots: 6.2%
- Chargers at Broncos: 6.2%
- Chargers at Texans: 3.9%
- Chargers at Steelers: 3.5%
