The Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorites despite lingering roster questions, as Josh Allen continues to elevate everyone around him. After dispatching the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card round, Buffalo now faces its most formidable challenge yet against the Denver Broncos.
Denver has arguably been the league’s best team all season, but coming off a bye, the Broncos will need to be at their absolute best to slow down Allen. If Buffalo can pull off the upset, attention will quickly turn to who awaits them in the AFC Championship Game.
Buffalo Bills’ Potential AFC Championship Opponent
Bills vs. Broncos sets up as a classic case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. Allen comes into this game with a 90.0 PFSN QB Impact Score. His 83.4 score against the Jaguars was the highest among all quarterbacks during wild-card weekend.
The Broncos’ Defense Impact Score on the season was 90.1, the highest in the league. They were the only team to earn an A- grade, making them the best defense in the NFL, barely edging out the Houston Texans by 0.7 points.
While Allen didn’t face Denver during the regular season, he shredded them the last time they met in the 2025 postseason. If he manages to repeat that performance, Buffalo will advance to face either the Houston Texans or New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, though PFSN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Bills just a 45.6% chance of reaching that stage.
As the lowest remaining seed, Buffalo would not host the AFC title game. Instead, the Bills would travel to face the winner of Sunday’s Texans–Patriots matchup. According to PFSN projections, a Bills–Texans AFC Championship has a 22.2% chance of happening, while a Bills–Patriots matchup has a 23.5% chance.
A potential rematch with Houston would again pit Allen against one of the league’s elite defenses. The Texans rank second in PFSN’s defensive metric and already gave Allen one of his worst performances of the season, sacking him eight times and intercepting him twice without allowing him a touchdown in a 23–19 Houston victory.
That game was one to forget for Allen, and a rematch would give him plenty of motivation for revenge. Still, if you’re a Bills fan, New England is likely the preferred opponent.
A Bills–Patriots AFC Championship would be evenly matched on paper, with both teams boasting similar defensive strength and offensive efficiency.
The division rivals split their regular-season meetings, including Buffalo’s December win in New England. Given Allen’s playoff experience compared to Drake Maye’s, the Bills would enter that matchup with a clear edge.
However, the numbers suggest a difficult path. According to PFSN analytics, Buffalo has the fourth-best chance of reaching the Super Bowl at 22.4%, trailing Denver (30.3%), New England (24.1%), and Houston (23.2%).
