We’ve reached the run-up to an incredible faceoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. What are the best Super Bowl 57 MVP odds, as well as lesser odds for below-the-radar candidates? Here are the top NFL betting odds for this year’s Super Bowl MVP award.
Super Bowl 57 MVP Odds
Half of the first 40 Super Bowls witnessed a quarterback securing the Most Valuable Player award. In the 16 since, 11 QBs have won it (68.8%).
From a betting standpoint, that’s actionable intelligence. It reflects a growing trend to reward quarterbacks for helming their team to victory.
During this “modern” phase of the NFL, which has placed a greater premium on the passing game, a wide receiver has won the award three times (15.8%), while a linebacker has received the prize the other two times (10.5%).
In a game whose narrow point spread suggests a toss-up, and where a combined 15 guys have a realistic or semi-realistic shot at MVP, here’s a snapshot of some DraftKings odds and how we might play it as bettors.
Jalen Hurts (+120)
Here’s the deal. If you bet on Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes to win the MVP (two separate wagers, of course), then that’s a completely rational hedge. Based on their odds, you’ll net a profit if trends hold and one of them wins the award. There are two types of bets I would make for MVP, and this is certainly one of them.
For Hurts, not much needs to be said. Anything he can do through the air beyond his average 247 passing yards and one passing score would be gravy. Because if Hurts wins the MVP, it’ll likely be because of his ground work.
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He’s rushed for 15 scores in 17 games this season, including the playoffs. In fact, in his four contests decided by five points or less, Hurts has collected an astonishing seven rushing TDs on an average of 74.5 rushing yards. In a close Super Bowl, Hurts has a great shot of being the difference-maker.
Patrick Mahomes (+125)
I’ve been asking this question for two weeks, and will keep asking it: Facing the Eagles’ tough defense, will the Chiefs put their fate in the hands of rookie Isiah Pacheco near the goal line or slowing veteran Jerick McKinnon?
Or, will Mahomes get the call to lunge in from a yard out, or to deftly execute a deliberately delayed scamper up the middle from the 5-yard line with Philly’s defenders patrolling the end zone?
MORE: Pro Football Network’s Super Bowl 57 Picks — Eagles vs. Chiefs Predictions, Odds, and More
We know what Mahomes can do through the air. He already has one Super Bowl MVP under his belt. Just as a Chiefs loss might rest on his shoulders (deservedly or not), victory could come down to whether Mahomes continues to lead his team to success. In other words, if KC wins, I’d be hard-pressed to bet on anyone other than Mahomes to take home the Pete Rozelle Trophy.
Travis Kelce (+1200)
Except . . . Yes, there are always exceptions. A tight end has never won the Super Bowl MVP. Travis Kelce certainly would have been a contender two years ago if Kansas City’s defense had somehow contained the Bucs. Kelce racked up a 10-133 receiving line in that one.
In that game, Rob Gronkowski compiled a terrific 6-67-2 receiving line. But Tom Brady beat him out for the MVP. Three years earlier — the last time the Eagles won the title — Gronkowski posted an even better 9-116-2 receiving line. Had the Patriots clawed back, he was certainly in line to make history.
As it stands, Kelce has as good a shot as any TE in recent memory to claim the prize. He’s Mahomes’ unquestioned No. 1 target, and arguably the No. 1 receiver in this game.
A.J. Brown (+1200)
At his realistic best, A.J. Brown can produce about eight catches for 120 yards and a touchdown in this contest. Brown dominated down the stretch of the regular season before taking a backseat in two fairly comfortable postseason victories. He’s a sneaky wager at favorable odds.
Miles Sanders (+2200)
Do yards matter for MVP consideration? Yes, yes they do. Only two RBs/WRs have won the award while collecting less than 100 yards: Fred Biletnikoff (Super Bowl 11) and Cooper Kupp (Super Bowl 56).
While Clarence Davis and Dave Casper actually outperformed Biletnikoff statistically, the latter was a 34-year-old nearing the end of an illustrious career. His award might have been motivated in part by sentimentality.
As for Kupp, his eight catches and two touchdowns augmented an otherwise “pedestrian” (for him) 92-yard performance. After completing one of the greatest WR seasons in NFL history, his reward was both deserved and not surprising.
The challenge for Miles Sanders is whether he’ll get enough volume to secure more than 75 yards. He’ll need a couple of scores to increase his odds. Even with a +2200 line, he’s a certifiable long shot.
DeVonta Smith (+2500)
Between DeVonta Smith and Brown, I’d rather bet on Brown. That’s no knock on Smith’s breakout abilities.
MORE: Super Bowl Betting History — Lines, Spreads, Results, and Trends
Rather, it’s a combination of factors: Hurts’ modest usage in the passing game, and Brown’s alpha efforts in the regular season’s final weeks, reminding us of why Philly traded for him last offseason.
Isiah Pacheco (+3500)
See above re: Miles Sanders. Isiah Pacheco needs scores. Unlike Sanders, he’s more involved in the passing game, but that might not be enough against Philly. Pacheco would need 100+ combined yards, reflecting a volume he might not secure unless the Chiefs run away with this one.
Here are the remaining DraftKings MVP odds:
- Haason Reddick (+3500)
- Chris Jones (+4000)
- Jerick McKinnon (+5000)
- Darius Slay (+6000)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+6000)
- Dallas Goedert (+6000)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (+8000)
- Brandon Graham (+8000)
- Nick Bolton (+8000)
- Frank Clark (+8000)
- T.J. Edwards (+10000)
- George Karlaftis (+10000)
- Quez Watkins (+10000)
- Kenneth Gainwell (+10000)
- Kadarius Toney (+10000)
- Gardner Minshew (+10000)
- L’Jarius Sneed (+15000)
- Willie Gay (+15000)
- Ronald Jones II (+15000)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+15000)
- Josh Sweat (+15000)
- Justin Reid (+15000)
- Boston Scott (+20000)
- Skyy Moore (+20000)
- Fletcher Cox (+20000)
- Jake Elliott (+25000)
- Harrison Butker (+25000)
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson (+25000)
- Ndamukong Suh (+25000)
- Mike Danna (+25000)
- Kyzir White (+25000)
- Zach Pascal (+25000)
- James Bradberry (+25000)
- Trent McDuffie (+25000)
- Reed Blankenship (+25000)
- Justin Watson (+25000)
