The Cincinnati Bengals were hoping to return to the NFL playoffs this season after missing out on the dance in 2023, but the 2024 campaign hasn’t gone as planned. Following a heartbreaking loss in Week 10, Cincinnati remains on the outside looking in.
The stakes couldn’t have been higher for Joe Burrow when the Bengals visited the Baltimore Ravens in a critical AFC North matchup. Let’s examine Cincinnati’s playoff chances following “Thursday Night Football.”
What Are the Bengals’ Chances of Making the Playoffs?
The Bengals fell to 1-4 after losing their first game against the Ravens in Week 5. That 41-38 overtime defeat felt like the nadir of Cincinnati’s season, but the club has rebounded since.
Zac Taylor’s club beat the New York Giants in Week 6 and the Cleveland Browns in Week 7 before losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 8. A 41-24 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9 brought the Bengals to 4-5 entering Thursday night’s game.
Following Cincinnati’s frustrating 35-34 loss to the Ravens in Week 10, its playoff hopes are dwindling. The Bengals went for the win with a two-point conversion attempt late in Baltimore, Md., yet the referees missed two penalties on a potential game-winning play.
Terry McAulay felt the Ravens got away with 2 penalties on the game-deciding 2-point attempt.
"It was clearly defensive holding…and that does look like forceable contact to the head of the quarterback," McAulay.
"Too many games end this way. They just do," Al Michaels. pic.twitter.com/Pl7WqjdWr6
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 8, 2024
Does Cincinnati still have a shot at making the dance? According to Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor, the Bengals’ odds are slim — but they still exist.
PFN’s model gives Cincinnati a 20.9% chance of making the postseason following Week 10. The Bengals’ heartbreaking loss to the Ravens initially lowered their chance to make the playoffs by 3.72 percentage points. However, by the end of Week 10’s shenanigans, the Bengals’ playoff chances were ultimately up 6.73 percentage points from before Thursday night.
Given that one of the Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers will likely enter the playoffs as a Wild Card team, the Bengals are competing with the New York Jets (3-7), Miami Dolphins (3-6), Indianapolis Colts (4-6), Los Angeles Chargers (6-3), and Denver Broncos (5-5) for two AFC Wild Card slots.
Here’s how those clubs’ playoff odds stack up against the Bengals’:
- Los Angeles Chargers: 80.9%
- Denver Broncos: 58.7%
- Indianapolis Colts: 25.8%
- Cincinnati Bengals: 20.9%
- Miami Dolphins: 22.9%
- New York Jets: 8.3%
Cincinnati has the NFL’s 16th-easiest schedule over the rest of the season. The Chargers (third-easiest), Dolphins (fifth-easiest), Jets (eighth-easiest), and Colts (10th-easiest) have less challenging slates among AFC Wild Card hopefuls. The Steelers (seventh-hardest) and Broncos (14th-hardest) have more difficult upcoming opponents.
For more, make sure to check out PFN’s current playoff bracket and scenarios, which are updated after each slate of games.
Can the Bengals Still Win the AFC North?
Never say never, but the Bengals don’t have much of a shot in the AFC North race.
Cincinnati won the division in 2021 and 2022 before falling to fourth place in 2023. After Week 10, neither of those results seems likely for Burrow’s squad. A second- or third-place finish looks like the best the Bengals will be able to do in 2024.
Currently, PFN’s predictor gives Cincinnati just a 0.8% chance of claiming the AFC North crown, while Cincinnati’s chance of winning the Super Bowl is 0.8%.
After losing to the Ravens in Week 10, the Bengals will have difficulty making up ground in the AFC North. Baltimore has swept the Bengals this season, so Cincinnati will have to capitalize on its two remaining matchups against the Steelers.