The Chicago Bears have undergone a rapid turnaround in Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach. After winning the NFC North, Chicago secured its first postseason victory in 15 years by defeating the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round and now turns its attention to a Divisional Round matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
Who is the Bears’ Potential NFC Championship Opponent?
The Bears–Rams game projects to be a tightly contested battle, but if Chicago can contain Matthew Stafford, the Bears would be one win away from the Super Bowl. Should they advance, here’s a look at who they would face in the NFC Championship Game.
Despite a 0-2 start in the division to begin the season, Johnson and the Bears didn’t panic. Fueled by seven one-score wins, Chicago rode a top-ten offense, according to PFSN’s Offense Impact Metric, to an 11-6 record, winning the NFC North one year after a fourth-place finish.
Chicago hosted Green Bay in the Wild Card round and delivered a thrilling 31–27 comeback victory in what has quickly become an intense divisional rivalry. The Rams, who boast the league’s top offense along with a top-five defense in PFSN metrics, present a formidable challenge, but the Bears have already proven they can respond under pressure.
Statistically, the Rams hold the edge, with PFSN’s Playoff Predictor giving them a 53.4% chance of reaching the NFC Championship Game. However, if Chicago once again defies the odds, as it did last week, the Bears would travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks on January 25 with a Super Bowl berth on the line.
Seattle has emerged as one of the league’s most compelling stories this season. Backed by a top-three defense, Sam Darnold has managed the offense efficiently, leading the Seahawks to a dominant 41–6 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round.
Chicago’s path to the Super Bowl remains difficult, with PFSN analytics giving the Bears a 21.5% chance of reaching the big game before the start of the Divisional Round. However, they have repeatedly shown resilience and remain a legitimate threat. Seattle enters as the favorite, with a 34.3% chance of reaching the Super Bowl and the highest title probability at 18.5%.
Bears’ Insights for Rams Game
Playoff: Chicago has reached the conference championship game three times since winning the Super Bowl at the end of the 1985 season. They are 1-2 in those games, with the only win during the 2006 season.
Team: The Bears outscored the Green Bay Packers 25-6 in the fourth quarter of the Wild Card game. For the season, Chicago ranked fifth in point differential during the fourth quarter and overtime. They ranked second in fourth-quarter/overtime points scored and 30th in points allowed after the third quarter during the regular season.
QB: Including playoffs, Caleb Williams has 12 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter/overtime. That is the second most behind Matthew Stafford’s 16. However, Williams has only completed 55.2% of his fourth quarter/overtime, which is 30th in the league.
OFF: In the last three games, Colston Loveland caught 24 passes for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns, compared to 42 catches for 528 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first 14 games.
DEF: The Bears had six games in which they committed at least three takeaways, tying them with Jacksonville for the most in the league; Chicago won all six games. The Bears led the NFL with 33 takeaways.
