After spending his entire career with the Los Angeles Chargers, Austin Ekeler will spend the next two playing for the Washington Commanders. Ekeler’s presence has an immediate impact not only on his value but also on Brian Robinson Jr.’s fantasy football value.
Let’s examine how this backfield might shake out.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Austin Ekeler Signing With the Washington Commanders?
The Commanders didn’t exactly need a running back. Given all the holes on their roster, it’s a bit surprising to see their first major acquisition be at that position.
At the same time, Washington let Antonio Gibson walk. He agreed to a three-year deal with the New England Patriots. That left the Commanders without a viable RB2 behind Robinson.
The prospect of Robinson in a potential three-down role would’ve been exciting for fantasy purposes, but it probably would’ve led to Robinson breaking down like he did last season. The reality is there just aren’t very many running backs out there that are going to both catch passes and get goal-line carries.
Ever since Melvin Gordon III left the Chargers, that’s been Ekeler’s role, though. For years, the Chargers searched for a way to take some of the load off of Ekeler. They never found the right guy.
Ironically, Gus Edwards is a perfect fit to allow Ekeler to return to his more natural satellite back-plus role. But now Ekeler is gone.
The good news is that Ekeler can play that role perfectly in Washington. He is the ideal complement to what Robinson provides.
After two years of averaging over 21 fantasy points per game, Ekeler’s production cratered last season. His 13.2 fantasy points per game were his lowest since 2018.
Ekeler averaged 3.5 yards per carry, a career low. He also saw his target share plummet to 14.7%.
At 29 years old, fantasy managers are going to hear Ekeler’s name in the same sentence as the words “washed” and “cooked.” But I think we should pump the brakes on writing Ekeler’s fantasy eulogy.
Ekeler was still able to average a respectable 4.6 yards per touch last season, and his 4.02 yards created per touch was inside the top 10. A big issue was his lack of explosive plays. However, I think it’s fair to chalk some of that up to Ekeler’s lingering ankle injury.
Back in 2019, Ekeler touched the ball 224 times and was able to average 19.3 fantasy points per game. Of course, no one should project him for anywhere near that total this season. However, he should have a decent chance to improve upon last year’s struggles.
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Receiving skills decline far slower than rushing skills. Even if Ekeler has lost a step or two as a runner, he can still be a very effective pass-catcher. We saw this with elite pass-catching running backs like Matt Forte and David Johnson.
Look for Ekeler to handle somewhere in the realm of 8-10 carries and 4-6 targets per game. His touchdown upside will be reduced as long as Robinson is healthy, but regardless, Ekeler has the chance to be a viable fantasy RB2.
Ekeler’s Presence Caps Brian Robinson Jr.’s Upside
I would stop short of saying Ekeler destroys Robinson’s fantasy value. The reality is Robinson’s role isn’t going to be much different than it was when he was losing passing game work to Gibson. It only feels worse because of the name “Austin Ekeler.”
There’s a chance the Ekeler signing makes Robinson a value in fantasy drafts. He’s still going to be the primary early-down and goal-line back. The pass-catching upside is gone, but it wasn’t there to begin with. While he did catch 36 passes last season, he still saw just an 8% target share.
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Robinson’s ceiling is probably in the 13-14 points per game range as long as Ekeler is healthy. If he falls far enough out of fear that Ekeler will take on too much, he could be worth drafting.
Touchdowns are still everything in fantasy football and we should expect Robinson to score more of them than Ekeler. He will be dependent on them, but most running backs are. Consider Robinson a low RB2 for now.
