The Baltimore Ravens had a spectacular regular season, and Gus Edwards’ dynasty value shot up as a result.
He was put in a great position to succeed with plenty of scoring opportunities, and Edwards took full advantage. However, fantasy football managers are more worried about what will happen rather than what did.
In that vein, is Edwards more of a sell than a buy heading into 2024 with the lead role for the Los Angeles Chargers his to lose?
Gus Edwards’ Dynasty Outlook
Any running back that is coming off of a career year and approaching his age-29 season is inherently terrifying based on expectations set by the traditional age curve at the position.
Entering 2023, Edwards had 13 touchdowns in 52 games, a below-average rate that wouldn’t move the needle in your research.
The #Ravens go for it on fourth down and Gus Edwards rumbles it home❕ pic.twitter.com/VSrqB6wdmd
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
In the first season with Todd Monken calling the plays in Baltimore, Edwards matched his career total and put fantasy teams on his back on a reasonably consistent basis.
Fool’s gold.
Edwards’ yards per carry tanked (5.0+ in every healthy season before last season’s 4.1 mark), and his limitations in the passing game remained (37 career targets). His lack of versatility didn’t impact his stock last year because of the unsustainable scoring rate, but what happens when that dries up?
(I’d be asking that question if he remained in Baltimore … a move to Los Angeles only turns up the volume on those whispers)
Edwards’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Edwards land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Edwards lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Saquon Barkley | PHI
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Kyren Williams | LAR
9) James Cook | BUF
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Javonte Williams | DEN
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
16) Derrick Henry | BAL
17) Nick Chubb | CLE
18) Josh Jacobs | GB
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Tony Pollard | TEN
21) Zamir White | LV
22) D’Andre Swift | CHI
23) Aaron Jones | MIN
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
25) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
26) Najee Harris | PIT
27) Blake Corum | FA
28) Tyjae Spears | TEN
29) Austin Ekeler | WAS
30) David Montgomery | DET
31) Joe Mixon | HOU
32) James Conner | ARI
33) Trey Benson | FA
34) Keaton Mitchell | BAL
35) Jonathon Brooks | FA
36) Raheem Mostert | MIA
37) Gus Edwards | LAC
38) Devin Singletary | NYG
39) Kendre Miller | NO
40) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
41) Zack Moss | CIN
42) Dameon Pierce | HOU
43) Roschon Johnson | CHI
44) Tank Bigsby | JAX
45) Khalil Herbert | CHI
46) AJ Dillon | GB
47) Chase Brown | CIN
48) J.K. Dobbins | LAC
49) Miles Sanders | CAR
50) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
Should You Trade Edwards in Dynasty?
Of course, there are a few moving pieces in the Edwards profile.
His potential to carry the mail on a consistent basis in an offense with a franchise QB is a checkmark in the right column. Old friend J.K. Dobbins is behind him on the depth chart, and while the talent isn’t in question, how much volume can he realistically soak up?
In addition to the micro questions marks, we have a macro one — how good is this Chargers offense going to be?
We are talking about a team with a new head coach that let both of their top receivers walk. I’m not saying this is a bottom of the barrel offense in 2024, I’m simply saying that there are more question marks today with this offense than there were when Edwards was acquired.
I’m normally a dynasty manager who will embrace uncertainty, I’m just not sure that Edwards has any value to gain by moving on. Due to his limitations in the passing game, he’s unlikely to be viewed as a true three-down back, meaning touchdowns are going to continue to drive his fantasy upside.
In 2023, the Ravens were fourth in yards per play and points per game, second in red-zone drives, and third in red-zone rush rate. No matter what you think about the path of the Chargers, they likely don’t have those stats in their immediate future.
I cannot hammer home the idea of scoring regression enough. In 2023, 44% of Edwards’ fantasy points (half-PPR) came on plays that ended in a touchdown.
That rate is difficult to grasp, but it makes sense given Edwards’ lack of splash plays and versatility. Dropping back to his career rate prior (25.3%) is what I’m projecting, and that has the potential to shift him from a weekly asset to a weekly drain.
Last season, Edwards issued the third season since 2007 in which a running back ran for 13+ touchdowns while carrying the rock under 200 times.
- 2018 Alvin Kamara: 5 TDs on 171 carries in his encore
- 2020 Alvin Kamara: 4 TDs on 240 carries in his encore
Regression was also going to be a part of the Edwards analysis after what he did last season, and a change in systems only widens the range of potential outcomes.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
I’m selling now and happy to do so. We’re in the business of predicting what is most likely to occur, and Edwards underwhelming based on heightened expectations coming out of a strong 2023 is the most likely outcome, in my humble opinion.
