The Arizona Cardinals face off against the Buffalo Bills in an early-slate showdown in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The Cardinals go on the road looking to build on a promising end to the season after Kyler Murray’s return from injury while the Bills aim to stay in both playoff and championship contention after an offseason of furious retooling.
For all information NFL betting and fantasy football related, here is a one-stop shop for the Cardinals at Bills season-opening matchup.
Cardinals at Bills Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
- Moneyline: Cardinals +240, Bills -298
- Total: 47
Another game that could be a popular survivor pick this week, the Buffalo Bills are laying nearly a touchdown at home against the Arizona Cardinals.
This line dropped below six points earlier in the week, as the Cardinals are a trendy surprise-breakout team this season.
One reason why: According to TruMedia, the Cardinals had the ninth-most efficient offense in the NFL last season after Kyler Murray’s return from injury by EPA, one spot behind the Bills. Now, Arizona has a fully healthy Murray, and he has a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver — No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr.
While this is a matchup of two talented offenses, both defenses worry me.
The Cardinals were the worst defense in the NFL last season by EPA, and enter 2024 with the 32nd-ranked unit according to our rankings.
The Bills meanwhile, already have their best defensive player, LB Matt Milano, sidelined with an injury, and this unit parted ways with several veterans this offseason, most notably Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde. With a lot of new faces defensively, there could be a learning curve for this Bills unit.
With all of that said, I don’t think it will surprise people where I’m going with this pick — give me the over.
Prediction: Bills 30, Cardinals 24
Pick: Over 47
Cardinals at Bills Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
- Channel: CBS
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, CBS All-Access
- Radio Stations: KMVP FM98.7, WGR 550 AM
- Starting QBs: Kyler Murray, Josh Allen
The next of the NFL games today features the Arizona Cardinals taking on the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. While 2023 was essentially a throwaway season after the outcome of the offseason, it was the first season after former head coach Kliff Kingsbury was replaced by Jonathan Gannon. Additionally, with Kyler Murray rehabbing a torn ACL, the Cardinals were without their QB1 until Week 10, throwing rookie QB Clayton Tune into the fire.
However, 2024 is a different story. Murray is fully healthy and has had an entire offseason and preseason to prepare. The Cardinals also had seven picks in the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft, the first of which was used to select former Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to become the WR1 of the receiver room for Arizona.
Between Harrison, 2023 third-round pick Michael Wilson, and 2019 UDFA Greg Dortch, Murray has a better cast of pass catchers than in recent years. RB James Conner also looks to continue his revival in Arizona after rushing for over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. With three RBs behind him to take some snaps off the workload, the Cardinals hope to keep Conner healthy enough to play in more than 13 games this season.
Meanwhile, the Bills see a significant change in the offense with the thoroughly shuffled wide receiver core. All-Pro WR Stefon Diggs and a couple of late-round picks were traded to Houston for a 2025 second-round pick. Additionally, Gabe Davis signed a three-year, $39 million contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency.
While Buffalo’s overall selection of receivers hasn’t been eye-popping, Allen still had Diggs to bail him out in times of need. With Diggs and Davis nowhere to be found, who will help Allen on the offense? RB James Cook’s late surge was very promising, and Buffalo couldn’t have asked for more from Dalton Kincaid’s rookie campaign. However, they will need someone in the receiver room to step up to help this offense.
The AFC is a strong conference and every win counts. A victory over the Cardinals would be an excellent start for the Bills, but it won’t be as easy as last season. It will be intriguing to see how Allen adjusts to his new weapons as the game progresses.
Cardinals at Bills Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray: I’m very excited about Murray’s ceiling this season, but I only have him as a fringe QB1 this week due to some matchup concerns as well as the time it could take for him to maximize the weapons at his disposal.
Splash plays are going to be Murray’s hallmark in 2024. Whether they are chunk runs or big gains through the air, Murray is unlikely to post a big fantasy number based on raw volume, but rather his unique ability for quick strikes. I anticipate we see plenty of that upside as the season progresses, but probably not to open the year.
2023 Buffalo Bills:
- Eighth-highest non-blitz pressure rate
- Fourth-lowest opponent deep pass TD rate
- Fewest yards allowed per deep completion
That profile doesn’t play favorably when it comes to evaluating Murray’s range of outcomes. I said it earlier about the big plays, but allow me to put some context to it.
In Murray’s 11 best fantasy games of his career, 41.8% of passing fantasy points came on deep passes (career: 28.2%), and 35.9% of his fantasy points came on the ground (career: 29.3%).
Be patient. The Cards get the Rams, Lions, and Commanders after this week. You’re going to be happy to have Murray on your roster before long.
For Week 1, however, I have him checking in just behind the two dynamic rookie quarterbacks and as my QB9.
Josh Allen: No surprise here – Allen was a Tier-1 quarterback during the draft process, and he profiles as such this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the highest deep completion percentage (55.8%, NFL average: 43.4%) and the second-most yards per drive (34.8).
Joe Brady’s offense revolved around Allen last season, and while I expect the new pieces to need time to gel, facing a defense with limited talent and the league’s lowest blitz rate a season ago should help mask any learning curve in this matchup.
Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in six of his past seven September games and is averaging 28.2 PPG in his last nine September victories. Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite this week.
Running Backs
James Conner: Conner wasn’t a sexy pick during the draft process this summer because he is a veteran and the passing game in Arizona got plenty of steam. You, the savvy manager, took advantage of the market to get a nice price. Well done!
I think your sharp approach is rewarded right out of the gates against a Bills defense that allowed the third-most yards per carry to running backs after contact in 2023.
The age curve could catch up to Conner as this season wears on, but he is as healthy as he’ll be at any point this season, and that’s an appealing profile for the RB who led the league in carries of 20+ yards last season (11).
Conner is flirting with RB1 status this week for me and should be locked in across the board, no matter your league roster requirements.
Trey Benson: Conner played north of 58% of the offensive snaps in 10 of his 13 games last season, reaching two-thirds on six occasions. I’m not against the idea of holding Benson as a handcuff behind a fragile back in a potentially explosive offense, but standalone value is a long shot. I certainly wouldn’t be banking on it in Week 1 with a healthy Conner in front of him.
James Cook: By success rate, the Cardinals were the worst running back defense in the league last season, something their 4.6 yards per carry against (second-worst mark) supports.
I’m an optimist at heart, and maybe that is why I have a different view on Cook than the rest of the industry (I have a standing bet with Derek Tate that Cook will outscore Josh Jacobs).
Instead of focusing on some of the scoring and short-yardage concerns, how about we look at his usage and production under Brady?
Think about it this way: Would you rather have proven talent and hope to run hot with scoring, or have the scoring role and hope to run hot on talent?
It’s not close for me – running hot on talent doesn’t happen much, but a player can fall into positive touchdown variance.
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In 2023, Cook had five games with 20+ touches, and four of them came after Brady took over the controls of this offense. Dig deeper and you’ll notice that Cook’s two most efficient games in terms of PPR points over expectation came in the Brady era, too.
I have Buffalo’s RB1 ranked in the same tier as Conner, and thus a lineup staple (maybe even a DFS piece if the field is going elsewhere).
Ray Davis: We get a “show me” week out of the gates with Davis and how he is used.
Buffalo is heavily favored to win this game, and Arizona was a bottom-10 red-zone defense in 2023, making this, in theory, the exact spot we want to feel good about plugging Davis in as a Flex down the road.
That’s the key – “down the road.”
As injuries and byes come into the picture, this pseudo-goal line vulture role stands to hold value, but I’d very much caution against assuming as much.
I think there’s more than just contingent value potential in Davis’ profile, but I need to see proof of concept (probably multiple times), before he gets lineup consideration, even in deeper and/or DFS formats.
Wide Receivers
Marvin Harrison Jr.: He’s a rookie, I get it. We haven’t seen him beat professionals yet, and I understand that causes some hesitancy.
Relax.
No matter where you stand on rookie receivers, can we not agree that both Harrison and New York’s Malik Nabers should walk into high-volume roles?
Over the past five seasons, a first-round receiver has seen 7+ targets in his first NFL start 11 times:
- 18.6 PPR PPG
- 29.3% target share
- +12.8% production over expectation
The Bills allowed the third-highest end-zone completion percentage last season at 44.8% (the NFL average was 35%), and I fully expect Harrison to be featured in close.
You drafted this kid as your WR1, and I think you see immediate returns on that investment.
Michael Wilson: Wilson’s size profile will have me buying in when the situation is just right, but I need some time to determine what type of matchup profiles as such.
Wilson is facing the defense that allowed just 17 completions of 25+ yards a season ago, easily the top prevention unit in the league. Every other defense allowed at least 22 such plays in 2023.
I think Wilson can assume a valuable role, and that warrants a roster spot, though we have to admit that the target ceiling isn’t high. Thus we must be patient.
Curtis Samuel: The veteran receiver suffered a turf toe injury in mid-August and was immediately labeled as “week-to-week,” bringing his Week 1 status into question.
Samuel turned 28 this offseason and only has one 700-yard season on his resume, though it did come with Brady as his OC in 2020 with the Panthers.
For now, Samuel is a stash because of the uncertainty of target distribution in this above-average offense, but I have his ceiling ranked third among the trio of Bills vying for targets. Being less than 100% isn’t going to change that stance.
Khalil Shakir: In theory, the Shakir case is simple – he was insanely efficient in a small sample size and now he is being asked to do more.
My initial reaction was to use Shakir’s 2023 stat line as a reason to watch him this season. But am I giving him enough credit?
Here are the top receiver seasons over the past decade by players standing at least 6’0” before turning 25, in terms of production over expectation (minimum 40 targets):
- A.J. Brown (2019): +53.6% – current peak finish: WR7
- Shakir (2023:): +50.7%
- Martavis Bryant (2014): +46.1% – current peak finish: WR17
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR9
- Mike Williams (2018): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR13
- Will Fuller V (2018): +39.6% – current peak finish: WR8
- Nico Collins (2023): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR7
- Ja’Marr Chase (2021): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR5
That paints a pretty optimistic picture and we could get a glimpse of that this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-highest slot TD rate last season. For reference, Shakir had a 67.2% slot usage last year.
I’m not ready to assume greatness or anything like that after a strong 45-target 2023, but there is a positive track record for this sort of resume, and that means keeping a close eye on Shakir as the structure of this offense comes into focus.
Keon Coleman: We don’t know exactly what the target hierarchy will look like in Buffalo, but Coleman figures to be in the middle of things given the team used a second-round pick on him after punting away its top two receivers this offseason.
While Shakir and Samuel project more as the conservative pieces in this offense, the 6’3” Coleman owns a catch radius that Allen will certainly explore in valuable spots. The Cardinals allowed 15.9 yards per deep pass attempt last season, a rate that is hard to grapple with. It was 16.9% worse than any other unit in 2023, and the second-worst mark over the past decade.
We will learn together where Allen is most comfortable, but Coleman is my preferred option in Week 1 and in this matchup. He was able to sneak into my top 40 at the position despite a lack of clarity regarding his role.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride: Arizona’s standout had a touchdown or five-plus catches in eight straight games to close last season. While the volume of looks might dip a little bit with the presence of Harrison, the level of defensive attention likely will, too.
You drafted McBride as a weekly lineup lock and he deserves that title. At worst, he is the secondary target earner in an offense that we all like and in front of a defense that can’t stop anyone.
This game has two of the top-five tight ends for the week in my rankings.
Dalton Kincaid: If there is a tight end who is going to jump up a tier from where he was drafted to where he finishes this season, Kincaid would be my pick, and Week 1 could well prove to be a good example of why.
With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer in town, is it not safe to pencil in Kincaid for an increase in route volume? As a rookie:
- Eight games with his highest route counts: 6.3 catches per game
- Eight games with his lowest route counts: 2.9 catches per game
There is no denying the opportunity that has presented itself for Kincaid, and the Cardinals don’t exactly profile as the type of defense that will stand in the way.
Last season, there were six instances in which a starter was targeted on at least 30% of his routes against Arizona, a rate that would land Kincaid’s projection among the very best in the game this week.
Included in that opponent list are alpha receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk, as well as a highly involved tight end in David Njoku.
Kincaid enters 2024 as Buffalo’s top target, and he should showcase his elite potential in this spot. He’s a strong DFS option and could well be the reason you earn a Week 1 win in your redraft league. I prefer Kincaid to Travis Kelce and have him labeled as TE2 for the week.
WANT MORE? READ: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Cardinals at Bills Key Stats To Know
Cardinals
Team: No team was worse at downing punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line in 2023 than the Cardinals (20.3%, the lowest rate since 2020).
QB: Kyler Murray was blitzed on 25.7% of his dropbacks through two seasons, but that rate has dipped to 21.7% since.
Offense: James Conner led the league in carries of 20+ yards last season with 11 last season.
Defense: The Cardinals allowed the highest deep completion percentage (55.8%; NFL average: 43.4%) and the second-most yards per drive (34.8).
Fantasy: Over the past five seasons, a first-round receiver has seen 7+ targets in his first NFL start 11 times: 18.6 PPR PPG, 29.3% target share, +12.8% production over expectation.
Betting: The Cardinals are the only undefeated ATS team in September road games over the past five seasons (6-0).
Bills
Team: James Cook was one of three backs in the NFL last season (min. 100 carries) with more carries of 10+ yards than carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage (De’Von Achane and Christian McCaffrey are the others).
QB: The Bills have led the NFL in red-zone drives since the start of the 2020 season (regular season only, they have 268 … and have one fewer game played due to the Damar Hamlin injury).
Offense: The Bills were the best third-down team in the NFL last season (49.8%).
Defense: The Bills were a league-best +30 in the sack department last season.
Fantasy: Khalil Shakir scored 50.7% more fantasy points than his target quality suggested probable. Over the past five seasons, the other seven 6’+ receivers to have a season like that (minimum 40 targets) all have a top-17 finish on their résumé (most recent examples are Nico Collins last season and Ja’Marr Chase in 2021).
Betting: Under tickets have come through in eight of Buffalo’s past 10 season openers.