The Tush Push quarterback sneak popularized by the Philadelphia Eagles has become one of the more controversial plays in the NFL. With a rules proposal on the table that could potentially ban the play, it’s worth diving deeper into the data to see if the play is as lethal as its reputation suggests.
Are Tush Push Sneaks an Unfair Advantage?
There isn’t publicly available data on Tush Push plays, but CBS Sports reported that the Eagles recorded a first down or touchdown on 39 out of 48 Tush Push sneaks in 2024 (81.3%).
Looking more broadly at 3rd- or 4th-and-1 conversion rates by position, we can see that quarterback conversion rates have far exceeded running back conversion rates since 2022 (when the Eagles widely adopted the Tush Push).
However, that gap has always existed, and in recent years, quarterbacks were similarly more successful than running backs on 3rd- or 4th-and-1 rushes from 2019-21 (the three seasons prior to the Tush Push becoming mainstream).
League-wide numbers include regular quarterback sneaks and scrambles. However, it’s interesting to note that the Eagles (and Buffalo Bills, who also widely use the Tush Push with Josh Allen) weren’t especially more successful than most teams on 3rd- or 4th-and-1 plays. Last season, including playoffs:
- Philadelphia and Buffalo ranked T-12th in conversion rate (76.2%)
- The league average conversion rate on 3rd- or 4th-and-1 was 74.1%
- The Washington Commanders led the NFL with an 88.1% conversion rate on these plays
There’s decent evidence that teams are catching on to the Eagles’ Tush Push success and making the play less automatic. Including playoffs, Hurts’ conversion rate on 3rd- or 4th-and-1 was his lowest in any of his four seasons as the Eagles’ starting quarterback. After an incredible success rate in 2023, Hurts was below the league average for quarterback conversions on 3rd- or 4th-and-1 rushing plays.
While his 83.3% conversion rate was still very high, it wasn’t out of the ordinary. For perspective, Hurts ranked fourth among players on 3rd- or 4th-and-1 conversion rate with 10+ attempts. He trailed Jayden Daniels (100% on 13 attempts), Joe Mixon (91.7% on 12 attempts), and Kyren Williams (86.4% on 22 attempts), none of whom come from offenses known for any short-yardage cheat code.
Other concerns regarding the Tush Push involve player safety and game integrity concerns (specifically the Commanders’ repeated offsides penalties trying to stop the play in the NFC Championship Game). But from a purely on-field success standpoint, the Eagles don’t appear to have an unfair advantage from pioneering the Tush Push compared to the league.