With fantasy draft excitement heating up, identifying early-round landmines is just as crucial as finding league-winners. As the 2025 NFL season draws closer, I have flagged a few big-name receivers who are overvalued based on current average draft position (ADP).
The factors considered in defining a bust include: 1) the player needs to be drafted in the top 50 picks, and 2) there has to be projected regression or a change in team context.
With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at why Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, and Courtland Sutton are four of my potential busts for 2025 fantasy football leagues.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Collins is coming off an injury-plagued season where he was held to only 12 games, but he still put up 68 catches for 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns. That worked out to 14.7 fantasy points per game, which ranked as WR7 for the season.
Nico Collins is what a truly dominant X-receiver looks like.
Top 5 in the league and the closest thing we’ll see to Julio Jones any time soon. pic.twitter.com/95QsgM3mJx
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) May 27, 2025
My hesitation in drafting Collins has nothing to do with the player, as this is one of the most talented wideouts in football.
There are three reasons why I’m lower on Collins. For one, it’s the injury risk. This is a wideout who has missed at least three games in three of his four seasons.
The next issue is that C.J. Stroud has dealt with shoulder soreness. While he’s publicly stated that he’s fine, it’s common for players to downplay injury concerns.
Lastly, it’s the opportunity cost. Collins is now a first-round pick, going at the same price as players like Derrick Henry, Brian Thomas Jr., and Malik Nabers. With that in mind, it’s hard for me to get to Collins at his current price, making him a potential fantasy football bust.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
McLaurin is coming off a terrific season in which he averaged 13.3 fantasy ppg, ranking him as WR15 on the year. It’s clear that the veteran benefited from finally having strong quarterback play in Jayden Daniels.
The problem here is that McLaurin’s yardage didn’t increase too much. The improved production came from touchdowns:
- 2019: 65.6 yards per game, 7 touchdowns
- 2020: 74.5 yards per game, 4 touchdowns
- 2021: 61.9 yards per game, 5 touchdowns
- 2022: 70.1 yards per game, 5 touchdowns
- 2023: 58.9 yards per game, 4 touchdowns
- 2024: 64.5 yards per game, 13 touchdowns
Now, McLaurin is priced up with a WR16 cost. And after a WR15 finish last year, this feels like he’s priced at his ceiling. Add in the fact that McLaurin is in a contract dispute, and it’s easy to see why he looks like a fade right now.
#Commanders WR Terry McLaurin has grown frustrated with the team over the lack of progress on a long-term contract extension, per @Schultz_Report. McLaurin is in the final year of his deal and recently left voluntary workouts. pic.twitter.com/SSgtrfTX2E
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) June 5, 2025
Then you need to consider that the Washington Commanders added Deebo Samuel Sr. While this is a player in decline, there’s a risk that he can take away some targets, especially in the red zone. It feels safer to go with other players at McLaurin’s current cost, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans has been the model of consistency, putting up 1,000+ yards in each of his 11 seasons. The veteran wideout averaged 14.5 fantasy points per game last year, finishing as the WR9 and showing zero signs of decline.
Last year Mike Evans led all WRs in Average Separation Score. Puka Nacua ranked just 26th. https://t.co/R2B9nFysCx pic.twitter.com/NIns6uVrwO
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 9, 2025
Evans is also attached to Baker Mayfield in a pass-heavy offense that should be involved in several shootouts due to a porous defense. This means he should be a buy, right? Not for me.
My reason is simple: it’s Evans’ age. Now entering his age-32 season, the wheels can fall off at any moment. We already saw Evans start to miss time last year with three games out of the lineup.
Perhaps the Bucs didn’t just invest a first-rounder in wideout Emeka Egbuka due to Chris Godwin’s injury recovery. Maybe they did so to protect themselves in case Evans starts to decline.
My preference is to go with proven producers who are a bit younger than Evans at this price, such as DJ Moore.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
My last fade is Sutton, who, when you consider his career production, is overpriced at WR28.
Courtland Sutton is an easy fade this year.
Currently going as WR26 on Underdog.
Career production:
2018: 7.8 PPG (WR64)
2019: 11.7 PPG (WR27)
2020: 8.1 PPG (WR59)
2021: 7.1 PPG (WR67)
2022: 8.5 PPG (WR44)
2023: 10.0 PPG (WR36)
2024: 11.8 PPG (WR23)— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) May 22, 2025
Last season was Sutton’s best fantasy year at WR23 in points per game. That’s not much of a profit at his current WR28 cost.
While he is still the Denver Broncos’ top target, we saw Marvin Mims Jr. come on strong in the second half last year. The Broncos also brought in Evan Engram at tight end and drafted wide receiver Pat Bryant in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
There seems to be more paths to downside than upside with Sutton at this cost. Going with someone like Zay Flowers in this range feels like the better bet.
Avoiding early-round busts is one of the biggest edges in fantasy football. While Collins, McLaurin, Evans, and Sutton all bring talent to the table, their ADPs come with too much risk in 2025 drafts. When you’re on the clock this summer, don’t just chase names — chase value.
