The NFL can vary a lot from week to week. There is no better example of this than juxtaposing last week’s “Bye-apocalypse” with all 32 teams in action this week. That also makes fantasy football lineup decisions more difficult.
Fantasy managers are starting New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara this week, but should they also consider starting Jamaal Williams?
Alvin Kamara’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Since returning from suspension, Alvin Kamara’s volume has been amazing. While he remains inefficient on the ground at 3.8 yards per carry, no running back has seen anywhere near the touches Kamara has seen through the air.
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On the season, Kamara’s target share sits at a robust 23.2%. He has 35 catches on 39 targets in a mere four games played. Kamara has already posted two games with 12+ receptions. Derek Carr turning into a check-down machine has been great for Kamara’s PPR fantasy value.
This week, Kamara gets a Colts defense surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. But it is worth looking into why to understand the matchup.
The Colts have been pretty good at limiting running back efficiency. They’re allowing just 3.7 YPC to backs, and only 13.3% of their receiving yards allowed have gone to running backs.
The main reason the Colts appear so fantasy-friendly to the position is because they’re allowing 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game to backs. Only the Panthers have been worse.
Kamara has scored just once this season. You can look at that however you want. On the one hand, he’s scored at least 17.4 fantasy points in every game without a touchdown. On the other hand, he’s probably not going to score many touchdowns. The latter makes this other guy a little more intriguing.
Jamaal Williams’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Everything about the matchup covered above applies to Jamaal Williams as well. Last week, Williams returned from IR and was eased back into action. He only played 22% of the snaps.
This week, Williams is expected to see his usage increase. That likely won’t result in anything in the passing game, but jumping from five carries to the 8-12 range is possible.
We also don’t know what the Saints plan to do at the goal line. Last week was the first game in which both Kamara and Williams played, and Williams was not quite 100 percent. This week, it should be the full committee. Williams is probably the one handling goal-line carries, which will give him touchdown upside against a team that struggles to prevent them.
Which of the Saints RBs Should You Start?
The Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer has Kamara projected for 16.9 points, which includes 58.6 rushing yards, 4.9 receptions, and 42.5 receiving yards. Unsurprisingly, it only has Williams projected for 5.0 points.
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You don’t need me to tell you that Kamara is an every-week, must-start RB1. This is really about Williams.
For Williams to end up being someone you’re glad you started, he will have to score. You know what you’re getting into if you start Williams. He’s a touchdown-or-bust RB3. If you need that this week, you can do worse than Williams in this matchup.
However, right now, Williams’ role as the goal line back is purely speculative. I would not advise starting Williams until we see with more certainty what his role is and whether any upside even exists.
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