This is my third article of the week on Alex Collins, and it’s only Thursday. But we at Pro Football Network leave nothing to chance. All eyes are on his role and fantasy football impact in this evening’s Thursday Night Football matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams now that Chris Carson is officially inactive.
What happens to Alex Collins with Chris Carson inactive?
With the inactives officially released, we now know that the Seahawks aren’t rolling with their starting running back in Chris Carson. This is smart, as there could be a serious risk of re-injury with his neck. This will be a long season (a historically long season). Seattle needs him during the home stretch and, ideally, the playoffs.
The Rams run defense has been consistent this season
On its face, this is obviously the best option for managers rostering Collins. Am I right? But let’s temper our excitement.
Yes, the Rams’ run defense has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per carry (4.7). But remember, as I highlighted earlier this week, the Rams have given up two big runs this season — one to David Montgomery (41 yards) and the other to Chase Edmonds (54 yards). If you remove those two gains as relative outliers, the Rams’ run defense is No. 9 in the league (3.9 yards per carry).
In fact, the Rams did such an excellent job against the Buccaneers that Tom Brady was their leading rusher. Furthermore, they almost completely shut down Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack in Indianapolis. So even if Collins is in line for 20+ touches, it would be hard to trust him as more than an RB2/3.
Should we be concerned with Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas cutting into Alex Collins’ fantasy workload?
Yes, it’s quite possible that Travis Homer and/or DeeJay Dallas could cut into Alex Collins’ fantasy upside. So be cautious with Collins. Know that his ceiling is lower than the hype suggests.
However, my colleague and another fantasy analyst here at PFN, Jason Katz, believes that fantasy managers need not concern themselves with Dallas, who has registered just four offensive snaps all season. On the flip side, Jason believes that Homer will likely see an increase in his usage. Homer’s snap share was 26% in Week 2 and 30% in Week 3.
Excluding Week 17 in 2019, Homer has never played more than 50% of the offensive snaps. Unless Collins goes down with a mid-game injury, that streak should continue. Homer does have an 8 target and 5 target game on his resume, so it’s possible he takes some, if not most of the passing down work.
Regardless, Collins will be the lead back and the favorite for goal-line carries in what should be a high-scoring affair. Jason considers Collins a low-end fantasy RB2 that you should start over more suspect options. Just don’t force him into your lineup ahead of established starters.
What’s the deal with Carson?
Carson didn’t practice on the short week due to a neck injury. Leading up to tonight, he was a game-time decision. But, we all know that fooling around with the neck is something you don’t do, and this is the smart option for both the Seahawks and Carson.
Beyond that, we don’t know the full story! If you know Chris, please text him. If he responds to you, email me. I’ll give you my personal cell number, and you can text me the information.
Wait, why couldn’t you just email me the information? Why jump through hoops with cell numbers and text messages? Good question. I’ll get back to you when you email me.
