One of the more intriguing running backs in the NFL and fantasy football, Green Bay Packers RB AJ Dillon could be entering a breakout year. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Dillon’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
AJ Dillon’s fantasy outlook for 2022
When looking for potential value in 2022, nailing the right “handcuff” who could assert themselves into a more prominent role is a fantastic way to add a potential breakout to your fantasy roster. Dillon is on the shortlist of players who fit the bill. The Packers certainly have a phenomenal RB in Aaron Jones. Yet, the conversation is once again back to wondering if this is the year we see a swap in roles take place.
When on the field, Dillon has shown to be a high-caliber rusher. Last season alone, he was the RB23 in PPR scoring while averaging 10.9 PPR/game. Recording 224 total opportunities, he was just 2.4 touches/game behind Jones (15.7). While Dillon did lead the team in rushing (187 carries for 803 yards), he was marginally behind in per-game attempts, with Jones averaging 11.4 to Dillon’s 11.
Where Dillon did see an advantage was in red-zone carries, leading Jones 39 to 34. However, it’s worth pointing out that this change in roles did not take place until the second half of last season. Where Dillon surprises many is when we get into the receiving stats.
AJ Dillon brings surprising PPR upside, aiding his breakout potential
While Jones did dominate the share with 67% of the RB targets, Dillon was sneaky good. He caught 34 of 37 targets for 313 yards and two scores. That’s 4.54 PPR points per game, more than Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Devin Singletary, and Melvin Gordon despite finishing the season ahead of Dillon in overall standings.
We know the spike weeks are there. In fact, Dillon had three finishes inside the top 12 last year. All of which came in the back half when Dillon saw more red-zone work. From Week 10 and on, Dillon had the same amount of top-10 finishes (three) as Cook, Chubb, and Javonte Williams but more than Jones (one).
With Davante Adams in Las Vegas, the prevailing belief is Jones will see more usage in the receiving game. This has been the case anytime Adams was out. It leads to the notion Dillon could see an even more significant increase in the RB touches than previously seen. Add in the lack of Adam’s presence inside the 5-yard line, and those quick passes could turn to handoffs for Dillon.
While I don’t believe he ends the season higher than Jones in PPR formats, Dillon has closed the gap and brings RB3 value with mid-RB2 weekly fantasy upside.
How the Packers’ depth chart impacts Dillon’s fantasy projection for the season
One of the questions of the offseason was the pending decision of Aaron Rodgers. Was he going to stay in Green Bay, head elsewhere, or choose retirement? As we now know, he’s back with the Packers, which is phenomenal for any fantasy manager looking to target their players.
The enormous shift on the offensive depth chart is at receiver, with Adams being the glaring omission. Unhappy with his current situation with the franchise contractually, he requested a trade. The Raiders were quick to pair Adams with his former college teammate at Fresno State, Derek Carr.
This created a massive hole in the offense as the Rodgers-to-Adams combo was one of the most productive in recent memory. In his place, the Packers selected both Christian Watson in Round 2 and Romeo Doubs in Round 4. They join a lackluster group of Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, and Juwann Winfree.
It’s no wonder Jones could be more involved out of the backfield. If anyone is to be a weekly option, it’s Allen Lazard, someone Rodgers already has chemistry with from previous seasons together.
Outside of Jones and Dillon, there are many questions on the Packers’ offense for fantasy
While I do like Watson’s upside, how much that translates to Year 1 is a massive question mark. He could be a star as a rookie and serve as the next Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Yet, he has one of the widest variances of anyone in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Right now, Doubs is the best bet on which rookie takes off in 2022. He’s flashed in camp and has the attention of Rodgers. There are growing pains, but he looks to have a leg up on Watson at the moment.
The backfield remains the same, with Jones and Dillon operating as the 1-2 punch. Kylin Hill is the likely RB3. However, he’s coming back from a missed rookie season due to a torn ACL he sustained in October of last year. He will be competing with Patrick Taylor, who earned the RB3 role, and rookie UDFAs B.J. Baylor and Tyler Goodson.
Barring a significant injury, Hill, Taylor, and the rest should have little impact on Dillon or Jones from a fantasy perspective in 2022.
Dillon’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 66, Dillon is coming off the boards as the RB25 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him towards the middle of the sixth round in 12-team fantasy leagues.
In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football rankings, Dillon comes quite a bit higher as the RB21 and the 43rd overall ranked player. While PFN’s rankings are a consensus, I’m more closely aligned to these rankings with Dillon being my RB21 and 46th ranked player overall.
Given the current RB landscape, Dillon is the last RB I feel comfortable with as my RB2. Once past the range of Cam Akers, Ezekiel Elliott, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, and even David Mongtomery, things drop off rather abruptly.
There are a ton of questions when it comes to Elijah Mitchell, Chase Edmonds, J.K. Dobbins, Cordarrelle Patterson, Damien Harris, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Antonio Gibson. I’d rather draft an upside WR or even a sliding Dalton Schultz and then target the likes of Melvin Gordon or Rhamondre Stevenson.
Dillon has a secure role that could expand in 2022 on one of the NFL’s premier offenses. Even though he will lose touches and some work in the red zone to Jones, Dillon has 800-yard and eight-TD upside before we add in receiving volume. After adding some high-upside pass catchers in the early rounds, I’ll gladly take him as my RB2 before the floor drops out from the position.